Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First United Corp. (FUNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.68-3.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.74 → 4.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FUNC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend at $0.26 per share | First United keeps paying a steady $0.26 dividend per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.26 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.28 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.26 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20260.28 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FUNC is a regional bank with a measured, earnings-led thesis rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year thesis is intact, though a recent earnings miss and mixed execution on costs temper the picture.
The valuation is about 15% above peers, while the expectations gap is small and valuation signals are broadly aligned. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, and valuation has recently declined; this suggests expectations are not especially stretched, though the evidence does not establish that the shares are cheap.
Near-term, the latest earnings miss and a run of consecutive misses raise some execution risk, despite a low estimated miss risk. Over the multi-year view, loans have grown and net interest margin rose from 3.83% in the first quarter to 4.05% in the third, while higher year-to-date operating expenses show that cost control remains mixed.
The thesis depends on sustained loan production and management’s ability to protect margins while controlling funding costs and expenses. Near-term sector conditions also matter: rate cuts could weigh on Financials, while continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support momentum; weaker results could remove that support.
For the 1-3 year view, FUNC’s strong recent performance and loan growth keep the long-term thesis intact, but the earnings-miss streak and mixed expense control warrant attention. The main swing factors are margin execution, cost discipline, and the Financials sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management is stable and committed to capital returns. |
| Intact |
| Unexpected CEO or key executive departures |
No major disruptive management changes Routine board elections occurred; no unexpected CEO or key executive departures reported in recent filings. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth above recent levels | A primary condition in First United Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 6.6% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 4.72% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 6.6% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20264.724012 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation near or below peer P/E | A supporting condition in First United Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is P/E <= 11.5. | Intact | P/E rises above 13 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 10.85x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202610.8486 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.71 → $4.87 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.71 | $101,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.71 | $101,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.71 | $101,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.71 | $101,350,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.80 | $103,096,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.80 | $103,096,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.75 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.74 | $102,498,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.87 | $103,576,350 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.