Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FUTU HOLDINGS LTD (FUTU)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$94.04-3.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
99.77 → 99.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FUTU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Malaysia business reaches break-even in 6 to 12 months | The company expects Malaysia to break even in 6 to 12 months. | Intact | Malaysia segment remains unprofitable after 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector business with an uncertain multi-year view, rather than a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround. Confidence in the evidence is low, and the thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to assess it.
The valuation label recently changed to inexpensive, and the valuation model has high confidence. However, the evidence does not say what expectations the market already assumes or compare FUTU with peers, so the expectations gap is unclear. Fragility is rated low, with no fragility gates triggered.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated: FUTU has missed in recent quarters, including the latest one, and the stated chance of another next-quarter miss is 54%. The evidence gives little detail on management execution or the broader multi-year financial trajectory. The sector backdrop is neutral, while the rate and financial-sector earnings signals could affect the near-term setup.
A favorable scenario depends on sector bellwethers such as MS, GS, and SCHW continuing to beat earnings and raise guidance. Misses or lower guidance from those firms could weaken the sector tailwind. The rate scenario is also uncertain: the snapshot says rate cuts would weigh on financial names because the sector usually does better when rates stay high.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the inexpensive label is offset by repeated earnings misses, elevated near-term risk, and low-confidence evidence about FUTU’s underlying trajectory. The long-term thesis hinges on future company results and whether financial-sector conditions remain supportive. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It aims for 800,000 new accounts in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Net new accounts fall below 800,000 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage regulatory challenges in China without profit decline | A primary condition in FUTU HOLDINGS LTD's published investment case. The stated target is No material profit decline from regulatory issues. | Improving | Profit declines materially due to regulatory actions in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain positive revenue growth | A primary condition in FUTU HOLDINGS LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 35.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 20, 202635.711903 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$91.20 → $99.87 · observed estimates
$24.76B → $27.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $91.20 | $24,762,469,178 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $91.20 | $24,762,469,178 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $91.20 | $24,762,469,178 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $91.20 | $24,762,469,178 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $91.20 | $24,762,469,178 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $91.20 | $24,762,469,178 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $91.20 | $24,762,469,178 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $91.15 | $24,806,518,008 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $91.15 | $24,806,518,008 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $91.15 | $24,806,518,008 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $95.86 | $25,254,532,580 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $95.86 | $25,254,532,580 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $95.86 | $25,254,532,580 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $95.86 | $25,254,532,580 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $95.86 | $25,254,532,580 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $91.16 | $24,808,464,075 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $90.76 | $24,782,615,107 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $91.33 | $24,947,936,214 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $93.31 | $25,683,618,162 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $95.97 | $26,477,755,676 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $96.01 | $26,488,142,368 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $96.20 | $26,651,666,419 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $96.24 | $26,662,117,233 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $96.24 | $26,662,117,233 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $96.24 | $26,662,117,233 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $98.02 | $27,024,699,726 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $98.01 | $27,022,580,806 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $98.01 | $27,022,580,806 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $98.00 | $27,157,873,612 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $98.02 | $27,162,133,002 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $97.97 | $27,157,144,998 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $97.99 | $27,163,535,917 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $98.64 | $27,308,125,599 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $98.64 | $27,308,125,599 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $98.64 | $27,308,125,599 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $98.79 | $27,368,565,505 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $98.81 | $27,372,858,614 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $98.78 | $27,366,418,951 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $98.77 | $27,364,272,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $98.77 | $27,364,272,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $98.77 | $27,364,272,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $98.77 | $27,364,272,397 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $98.77 | $27,362,125,843 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $98.76 | $27,457,236,385 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $98.70 | $27,452,928,016 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $98.70 | $27,452,928,016 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $98.70 | $27,452,928,016 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $98.69 | $27,448,619,647 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $98.73 | $27,459,403,630 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $98.70 | $27,451,296,981 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $98.73 | $27,459,773,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $98.73 | $27,459,773,014 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $99.79 | $27,460,188,833 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $99.79 | $27,460,363,891 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $99.79 | $27,460,363,891 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $99.80 | $27,463,171,818 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $99.80 | $27,462,783,535 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $99.78 | $27,458,952,299 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $99.77 | $27,456,430,311 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $99.77 | $27,455,557,184 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $99.77 | $27,455,956,128 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $99.77 | $27,455,956,128 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $99.77 | $27,456,794,843 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $99.77 | $27,456,794,843 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $99.77 | $27,454,639,848 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $99.76 | $27,452,484,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $99.76 | $27,452,484,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $99.76 | $27,452,484,853 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $98.69 | $27,450,329,858 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $98.70 | $27,451,191,700 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $98.71 | $27,453,773,636 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $98.71 | $27,453,890,268 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $98.70 | $27,453,070,493 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $98.71 | $27,454,522,447 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $98.71 | $27,454,522,447 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $98.72 | $27,456,677,772 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $98.72 | $27,456,677,772 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $98.71 | $27,454,522,447 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $98.72 | $27,456,677,772 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $98.70 | $27,452,367,123 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $98.85 | $27,493,318,287 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $98.85 | $27,493,318,287 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $98.85 | $27,493,318,287 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $98.79 | $27,476,075,691 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $98.79 | $27,476,075,691 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $98.75 | $27,465,299,069 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $98.76 | $27,467,454,394 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $99.83 | $27,740,564,722 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $99.82 | $27,738,387,796 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $99.82 | $27,738,387,796 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $99.82 | $27,738,387,796 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $99.83 | $27,742,741,648 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $99.87 | $27,735,819,046 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.