Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.12-2.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.25 → 0.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FWRG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keep capital expenditures between $150M and $160M in 2026 | A supporting condition in First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $150M to $160M CAPEX. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $160M significantly in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $40.974M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $150M to $160M CAPEX. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202640,974,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FWRG is a restaurant-growth business with a durable premium, supported by robust earnings quality and a plan to add locations. The multi-year view is on watch: recent performance trails its industry cohort, and the signal has shifted from mixed to cautious.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 2.38 premium and a durable-premium rationale. The expectations gap is nearly neutral at -0.02, and the priced-in signal is tagged justified, so the evidence does not point to a large expectations mismatch; model confidence is low.
Near term, revenue growth has exceeded management’s 12% to 14% 2026 goal so far, while restaurant openings are progressing toward the 59 to 63 target. Capital spending guidance was reduced slightly, and a recent earnings miss plus erratic surprises leave execution risk elevated; the next guidance update is an important watch point.
The multi-year thesis depends on FWRG sustaining revenue growth and delivering its planned restaurant expansion. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength or weakness from sector bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM could shape the sector backdrop.
FWRG has evidence of strong growth execution, but its expensive peer valuation and recent performance concerns leave the 1 to 3 year thesis dependent on continued delivery and a supportive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain stable profit margins near current levels |
| Profit margins and cash flow remain stable. |
| Improving |
| profit margins decline significantly below recent levels |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Open 59 to 63 new restaurants in 2026 | First Watch plans to open 59 to 63 new restaurants in 2026. | Intact | net new restaurants fall below 59 in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 12% to 14% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 12% to 14% revenue growth. | Broken | revenue growth falls below 12% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We delivered on our top-line plan, grew same-restaurant sales against our toughest comparison of the year and increased total revenue by 10.7%, all while opening 16 system-wide restaurants across 11 states,” said Chris Tomasso, CEO and President of First Watch.” ““Our teams continue to execute at a high level, driving Adjusted EBITDA growth ahead of our expectations and giving us the confidence to raise our full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to the high end of our previous guidance range."” Revenue was $349.861 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.27 → $0.26 · observed estimates
$1.55B → $1.55B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.27 | $1,554,994,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.27 | $1,554,994,340 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.27 | $1,554,594,277 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.26 | $1,547,444,075 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.26 | $1,551,058,663 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.26 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.25 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.25 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.25 | $1,550,845,243 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.25 | $1,550,845,243 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.25 | $1,550,845,243 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.25 | $1,550,845,243 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.25 | $1,551,409,883 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.25 | $1,551,405,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.25 | $1,550,305,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.25 | $1,550,415,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.25 | $1,550,415,063 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.25 | $1,550,790,283 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.25 | $1,550,790,283 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.25 | $1,550,790,283 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.25 | $1,550,790,283 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.25 | $1,549,967,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.25 | $1,549,967,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.25 | $1,549,967,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.25 | $1,549,967,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.25 | $1,549,967,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.25 | $1,549,967,026 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.24 | $1,549,313,844 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.24 | $1,549,313,844 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.24 | $1,549,313,844 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.24 | $1,549,313,844 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.24 | $1,549,313,844 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.24 | $1,549,313,844 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.24 | $1,549,313,844 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.26 | $1,549,840,551 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.