First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.05+2.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FWRG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FWRG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026. A copy of the release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Fewer openings may show problems in growth and expansion plans.
Worry ifFewer than 59 new restaurants opened in 2026.
Less concerning if59 or more new system-wide restaurants opened in 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving this growth shows strong demand and effective management. It impacts future earnings.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reaches at least 12% year over year by the end of 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The new CFO may change how the company manages money. This could worry investors.
Watch forGood financial results or updates after the new CFO can show progress.
Also watch forBad financial results or no clear plan after the new CFO can cause concern.
Why it matters: Investing this amount is crucial for supporting growth and expansion plans for 2026.
Watch forManagement says capex spending is on track or ahead of schedule.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays or cuts to the capex plan.
Why it matters: Staying above 1.5% would show strong demand and support management's growth targets.
Supportive ifSame-restaurant sales grew more than 1.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSame-restaurant sales grew less than 1.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Going over 12.5% shows strong performance. It matches what management expects.
Supportive ifTotal revenue growth reported above 12.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth reported below 12.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching 30 openings would show strong execution of the expansion plan.
Supportive ifTotal new restaurant openings reach 30 by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifTotal new restaurant openings fall below 30 by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows disciplined spending aligned with growth plans.
Watch forCapital spending was between $145M and $150M for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending was outside of $145M to $150M for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$182 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $449 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,582 loss on $10,000 · 45.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.