First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.12-2.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FWRG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FWRG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026. A copy of the release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The 2026 adjusted EBITDA range is $133 million to $136 million. A weak Q3 result could make the low end harder to reach.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is too low to reach $133 million for the year. Or management cuts the $133 million floor.
Less concerning ifQ3 results keep the company on pace for at least $133 million, and management keeps or raises the range.
Why it matters: First Watch plans to spend heavily on new stores and remodels. Positive free cash flow would show that operating cash covers those costs.
Supportive ifThe company reports positive free cash flow in 2027. This means cash from operations minus capital spending.
Worry ifThe company reports zero or negative free cash flow in 2027, or drops its target for positive free cash flow.
Why it matters: First Watch raised its 2026 sales range, but traffic was still down 0.4% in Q2. Sales below 1.5% would miss the new full-year range.
Worry ifQ3 same-store sales growth is below 1.5%. Or management cuts the 2026 range below 1.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 same-store sales growth is at least 3%, and same-store traffic is above zero.
Why it matters: The next report can show whether traffic turned positive after June and whether First Watch kept its 2026 targets.
Watch forQ3 same-store traffic is positive. Management keeps or raises its 2026 sales and EBITDA ranges.
Also watch forQ3 same-store traffic is negative. Management cuts its 2026 sales or EBITDA range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $527 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,553 loss on $10,000 · 45.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New stores are a key source of growth. First Watch opened 34 system-wide restaurants in the first half.
Supportive ifThe company reports 60 to 62 net new restaurants across its system for 2026, within its updated range.
Worry ifThe company lowers its 2026 target below 60 net new restaurants or reports fewer than 60 for the year.