Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
German American Bancorp, Inc. (GABC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.56-0.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.12 → 4.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GABC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain consistent dividend payouts at $0.31 per share | German American Bancorp pays steady dividends of $0.31 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.31 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.31 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share remains at $0.31 or higher. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.31 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking business with a results-led, moderately risky multi-year thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact: recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, and the company’s signal has improved to mildly favorable.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, with a durable premium versus peers and a 0.13 expectations gap. That suggests the market already gives GABC credit for lasting business strength, leaving less room for weaker execution; fragility is rated low.
Near-term results have been strong: net income rose from the first to the third quarter of 2026, and net interest margin was higher than a year earlier. Credit measures also improved, but deposits declined in the latest quarter, so funding growth remains an execution issue. A guidance cut would be a meaningful near-term risk, while the stated miss risk is low despite a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued earnings, margin, and expense control, along with progress in growing deposits to fund lending. Credit quality and the effect of interest-rate changes also matter: the evidence flags rate cuts as a sector headwind. Strong earnings and higher guidance from named financial-sector peers could support sector momentum, while a GABC guidance cut would weaken the setup.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GABC’s strong recent performance and improving credit measures support an intact thesis, but deposit growth and stretched expectations leave execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in German American Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.88 in FY26. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.88 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.03 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.88 in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 26, 20261.03 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating income near $41.7 million quarterly | It maintains stable operating income around $41.7 million. | Intact | Operating income falls below $41.7 million in any quarter | Operating income: $48.609M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income stays >= $41.7 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 202648,609,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve stable net income near $33 million quarterly | It maintains stable operating income around $41.7 million. | Intact | Net income falls below $33 million in any quarter | Net income: $38.637M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income stays >= $33 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 202638,637,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.97 → $4.16 · observed estimates
$0.42B → $0.43B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.97 | $419,033,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.97 | $419,033,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.97 | $419,033,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.97 | $419,019,900 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.97 | $419,033,800 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.00 | $420,499,900 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.05 | $421,331,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.09 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.12 | $423,082,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.12 | $423,413,400 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.12 | $423,417,200 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.14 | $426,047,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.16 | $428,616,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.16 | $428,616,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.16 | $428,616,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.16 | $428,616,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.16 | $428,616,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.16 | $428,616,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.16 | $428,616,600 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.