German American Bancorp, Inc. (GABC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$50.01+0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GABC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -12.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
GABC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-27
Other Events. Cash Dividend . As announced in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report, the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.31 per share which will be payable on August 20, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 10, 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in non-interest income could show weaker revenue. This may hurt overall profit.
Worry ifNon-interest income is below $17 million. It was $17.2 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifNon-interest income stays at or above $17.2 million.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth shows trouble in getting funds. This may limit lending.
Worry ifDeposit growth is below 0.9% each year.
Less concerning ifDeposit growth remains at or above 0.9%.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs could mean credit problems.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are over 0.08%.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are below 0.08%.
Why it matters: Strong deposit growth means good funding for future loans and operations.
Supportive ifTotal deposits increase more than $14.9 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease or increase less than $14.9 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $205 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,129 loss on $10,000 · 11.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable net income is key for growth. A decline could hurt future plans.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 is at least $33.15 million, stabilizing from Q1.
Less concerning ifNet income drops below $33.15 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good management. It also means more growth potential.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is over $41.71 million. This shows improvement.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $41.71 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If the efficiency ratio goes up, it could mean rising costs compared to income. This may worry investors about how well the company operates.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio is over 55% compared to 51.2% in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio stays at or below 51.2%.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income could show ongoing profit problems. Investors might react badly.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls more than 5% year over year compared to $33.15 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income increases or stays stable compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A fall in net interest margin could show profit pressure on the bank. This might hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 4.0% compared to 4.26% in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 4.26%.
Why it matters: Earnings above $1.02 would show continued strong performance. This supports the growth narrative.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $1.02.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $1.02.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth helps the company grow. It also strengthens its market position.
Supportive ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 15% in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below the median of 15% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If non-performing assets increase, it shows weaker credit quality. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifNon-performing assets are more than 0.35% of total assets.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets are at or below 0.32%.