German American Bancorp, Inc. (GABC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$50.56-0.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GABC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GABC — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-26
Other Events. Cash Dividend . As announced in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report, the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.31 per share which will be payable on November 20, 2026 to shareholders of record as of November 10, 2026.
Why it matters: Loans grew about 4% annualized in Q3, led by commercial real estate and home equity. Continued growth would support the bank's earnings plan.
Supportive ifQ4 loans grow at least 4% annualized from the September 30 balance of $5.998 billion.
Worry ifQ4 loans shrink from $5.998 billion, or grow below 4% annualized.
Why it matters: The CPI report is a near-term read on prices. GABC's Q3 margin rose as asset yields increased, while long-term rates also hurt tangible capital.
Watch forThe November 10 CPI report shows lower inflation than the prior report. GABC later reports a margin above 4.42%.
Also watch forThe November 10 CPI report shows higher inflation. GABC later reports a margin below 4.26% or a TCE ratio below 9.39%.
Why it matters: The margin rose to 4.42% in Q3 and helped drive record earnings. A further gain would support the earnings trend.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 4.42%, or core net interest margin is above 4.26%.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 4.26%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $186 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,129 loss on $10,000 · 11.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.