Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Gaia, Inc. (GAIA)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.280.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GAIA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase average revenue per user by 20-25% by 2026-Q4 | It plans to increase revenue per user by 20-25% by late 2026. | Broken | ARPU growth falls below 15% by 2026-Q4 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making subscription business with an execution-dependent long-term thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: management priorities remain in place, but recent performance is weak and confidence has fallen to medium.
The evidence describes GAIA as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and valuation-model confidence is low. The priced-in signal is marked justified, with low fragility, but these signals do not remove the risk created by losses and weak financial performance.
Near term, revenue has moderated, and operating cash flow turned negative in Q2 after nine consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow through Q1. Management is targeting 20-25% higher average revenue per user and 20% lower churn by Q4 2026; progress is on track for the first goal and mixed for the second, while returning to positive free cash flow remains under watch.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether higher revenue per user and lower churn can improve the business without continued pressure on revenue and cash flow. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or continued strength from sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop, but would not resolve GAIA’s execution risks.
Over the next 1-3 years, GAIA’s thesis depends on delivering its member and cash-flow goals amid weak recent results and high risk. Evidence is mixed, so the current long-term thesis remains uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is working to reduce customer churn by 20%. |
| Broken |
| churn reduction less than 10% by 2026-Q4 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are already seeing traction from these disciplined choices, with member churn rate improving by more than 20% from the first to the third quarter.” “As a reflection of that focus, for the fourth quarter of 2026, compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, Gaia is targeting an approximate 20% reduction in churn and a 20-25% increase in ARPU.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Deliver positive free cash flow by 2025 | Gaia targets positive free cash flow soon. | Broken | free cash flow remains negative through 2025 | Free cash flow: $-7.003M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Free cash flow >= $3.2 million by 2025-12-31. Target period ends 2025-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 10, 2026-7,003,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $100 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Gaia, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $99 million by 2026-12-31. | Intact | revenue falls below $90 million in 2026 | Revenue: $22.031M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $99 million by 2026-12-31. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 2, 202622,031,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.05 → $-0.36 · observed estimates
$0.11B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.09 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.09 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.09 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.09 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.09 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.09 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.09 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.23 | $102,850,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.23 | $102,850,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.05 | $114,150,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.37 | $91,475,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.36 | $89,625,000 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.