Gaia, Inc. (GAIA)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.60-4.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GAIA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 68.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GAIA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-02
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any of the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”)or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows good financial health. It helps keep growth going.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is positive. It is over $1 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow reported as negative for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows problems in getting good subscribers and controlling costs.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls over 5% from last year. This shows ongoing subscriber problems.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stays the same or grows from last year. This shows good subscriber management.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue growth and cash flow. This is crucial for understanding Gaia's financial health.
Watch forEarnings show revenue growth compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forEarnings show revenue decline compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Stabilizing or growing revenue shows better member engagement. This is good for business health.
Watch forRevenue growth reported to be above 2% year-over-year for Q2 2026.
Also watch forRevenue growth reported to be below 2% year-over-year for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Getting back to positive free cash flow shows better finances and efficiency.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive in Q4 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Less churn means better success in keeping good members and raising ARPU.
Supportive ifChurn reduced by 20% compared to Q4 2025.
Worry ifChurn does not decrease or worsens compared to Q4 2025.
Why it matters: Higher ARPU shows good member engagement and smart pricing plans.
Supportive ifARPU increases by 20-25% compared to Q4 2025.
Worry ifARPU does not increase or declines compared to Q4 2025.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well Gaia is doing financially. Key metrics will help investors understand growth.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations with revenue growth and improved cash flow.
Also watch forEarnings miss expectations with declining revenue and cash flow.
Why it matters: If revenue keeps falling, it shows problems with keeping and gaining members.
Worry ifQ3 revenue down year over year worse than $23.3 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: If the sector starts growing again, it could help Gaia's performance. This is a key trend to watch.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$238 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $600 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,067 loss on $10,000 · 80.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.