Gaia, Inc. (GAIA)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.280.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GAIA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GAIA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-02
and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference into any of the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”)or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
Why it matters: Gaia reported negative operating cash flow in Q2 and aims to return to positive free cash flow in Q4.
Supportive ifGaia reports positive free cash flow for Q4 2026.
Worry ifGaia reports zero or negative free cash flow for Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Lower churn would show that more direct members stay with Gaia. A smaller drop would leave the member shift unproven.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 churn is at least 20% below Q4 2025.
Worry ifQ4 2026 churn is less than 20% below Q4 2025, or rises year over year.
Why it matters: Gaia is shifting toward direct members who pay more. Meeting this target would show that the shift is working.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 ARPU is at least 20% above Q4 2025.
Worry ifQ4 2026 ARPU is less than 20% above Q4 2025.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 5% year over year to $23.3 million. A further drop would show that the sales pressure continues.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is below $23.3 million, the reported Q2 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue is at least $23.3 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$238 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $639 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,317 loss on $10,000 · 73.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.