Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GameSquare Holdings Inc (GAME)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.50-6.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.72 → 0.72 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GAME yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve over $5M adjusted EBITDA in 2026 | The company plans to earn over $5M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA fails to exceed $5M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With revenue growth accelerating, gross margins expanding and adjusted EBITDA turning positive, we believe we have established meaningful momentum and are well positioned to deliver a strong second half of 2026,” Kenna concluded.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder: the company is loss-making, management is described as volatile, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. The long-term thesis is on watch, with recent performance below its industry cohort and the signal recently turning cautious.
GAME is valued at a premium to peers, with optionality, or the possibility of future growth opportunities, cited as the reason; confidence in the valuation model is low. The evidence says valuation is expensive, but does not show the broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence that would make expectations especially fragile.
Near term, revenue rose between the first and second quarters of 2026, operating losses narrowed, and second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was positive. Management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $85 million to $90 million and adjusted EBITDA above $5 million, but the interim evidence does not confirm those full-year goals, and the next-quarter miss risk is elevated.
The multi-year case hinges on continued revenue growth, improving profitability, and evidence that creator-network expansion contributes meaningfully to results. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal; lower interest rates or continued earnings strength from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GAME’s thesis depends on converting early operating progress into reliable delivery, while elevated execution risk and a premium valuation leave limited evidence of a settled business trajectory. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase stock repurchase program to $15M | They increased their stock buyback program to $15M, showing capital return intent. | Intact | Stock buyback program is not increased or executed meaningfully in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin near 37.5% in 2026 | A primary condition in GameSquare Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~37.5%. | Improving | Gross margin falls below 35% in FY26 | Gross margin: 48.98% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~37.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202648.983075 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $85M-$90M revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in GameSquare Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$87.5M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $85M in FY26 | Revenue: $18.475M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$87.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202618,475,300 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With revenue growth accelerating, gross margins expanding and adjusted EBITDA turning positive, we believe we have established meaningful momentum and are well positioned to deliver a strong second half of 2026,” Kenna concluded.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.28 → $0.72 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.00 | $138,013,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.00 | $138,013,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.00 | $138,013,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.00 | $138,013,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.00 | $138,013,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.00 | $138,013,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $138,013,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.00 | $138,013,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.00 | $138,013,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.28 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.01 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.01 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.01 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.01 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.01 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.08 | $100,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.72 | $125,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 16, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.