Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GATX (GATX)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$186.42-2.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.25 → 11.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GATX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities at least $199 million per quarter | Cash from operations rose to $199 million in Q1. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $180 million per quarter | Cash from operations: $244.2M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=199.1 million USD per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026244,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a leasing business with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance, but it also faces a sector headwind. The long-term thesis is intact, though the latest miss and falling momentum make near-term execution important.
Valuation is described as cheap, and the model shows GATX close to peer levels rather than carrying a large premium. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence, with only a modest gap and low fragility in what is priced in.
Near term, the October earnings miss and sharp fall in company momentum raise execution concerns, although the stated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, high rail utilization, higher Rail North America segment profit, and growth in Engine Leasing profit support the business, while management delivery remains mixed.
A key risk is whether GATX cuts guidance after raising it in July, which could damage management credibility. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results from industrial bellwethers would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on continued leasing execution and the ability to absorb sector headwinds; the latest miss weakens near-term momentum but does not yet overturn the underlying business case. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Dividends per share keep increasing, showing steady shareholder returns. |
| Intact |
| Dividends per share fall below $0.60 per quarter |
Dividend per share: $0.66 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.66 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20260.66 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS near $9.75 in FY26 | A primary condition in GATX's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.75 USD per share. | Intact | EPS guidance mid falls below $9.0 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 20% YoY | A primary condition in GATX's published investment case. The stated target is >=19.5% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% next year | Revenue growth: 36.13% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=19.5% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 30, 202636.125654 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.17 → $11.34 · observed estimates
$2.48B → $2.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.17 | $2,480,311,640 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.17 | $2,480,311,640 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.17 | $2,480,311,640 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.17 | $2,480,311,646 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.17 | $2,480,311,640 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.17 | $2,480,311,646 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.17 | $2,480,311,646 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.17 | $2,480,311,640 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.19 | $2,473,330,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.26 | $2,437,155,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,350 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,350 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.26 | $2,437,155,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,350 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.26 | $2,437,155,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,350 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,350 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,350 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,350 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,350 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.26 | $2,437,155,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.26 | $2,437,155,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.26 | $2,437,155,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.26 | $2,437,155,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.26 | $2,437,155,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.26 | $2,437,155,896 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.27 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.25 | $2,427,519,348 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.26 | $2,427,339,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.26 | $2,427,339,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.26 | $2,427,339,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.26 | $2,427,339,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.26 | $2,427,339,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.26 | $2,427,339,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.26 | $2,427,339,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.26 | $2,427,339,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.26 | $2,426,664,426 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.32 | $2,426,997,176 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.34 | $2,405,704,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.34 | $2,405,704,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.34 | $2,405,704,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.34 | $2,405,704,507 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.34 | $2,405,704,507 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.