GATX (GATX)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$178.11+0.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GATX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
GATX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-21
Entry Into A Material Definitive Agreement On May 21, 2026, GATX Corporation (the “Company”) entered into Amendment No. 1 (the “Amendment”) among the Company, the banks, financial institutions and other institutional lenders parties thereto, and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent, to its existing Five Year Credit Agreement, dated as of May 21, 2024 (as amended, supplemented, or otherwise modified from time to time, the “Credit Agreement”), among the Company, Citibank, N.A. and BofA Secur…
Why it matters: A drop in demand could hurt Engine Leasing profits and the company's performance.
Worry ifManagement says demand for aircraft spare engines is down in the next earnings call.
Less concerning ifManagement says demand for aircraft spare engines is strong or stable.
Why it matters: More cash from operations helps GATX focus on increasing cash flow.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases more than 10% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations decreases or stays flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows the company is improving its profitability. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifQ2 net income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growing dividends mean the company is doing well. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase of more than 5%.
Worry ifNo dividend increase or a decrease in the dividend payout.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $208 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,805 loss on $10,000 · 18.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates will show how GATX is handling its biggest acquisition.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about the successful integration. They see benefits from the Wells Fargo fleet.
Worry ifNo news or negative comments on integration mean there are challenges.
Why it matters: A higher LPI indicates strong demand for railcars and better lease rates, which boosts revenue.
Supportive ifLPI goes above 22.3% in the next quarters. This shows strong pricing power.
Worry ifLPI falls below 22.3%, signaling weakening demand for railcars.
Why it matters: A drop in use would show weaker demand for railcars in Europe.
Worry ifFleet use in Rail International drops below 95%.
Less concerning ifUse stays above 95%, showing stable demand for railcars.
Why it matters: Good integration can improve fleet use and how well it runs.
Supportive ifManagement says fleet use is over 98% after the deal.
Worry ifFleet use falls below 95% due to integration problems.
Why it matters: Higher investment volume shows GATX's commitment to growth and can enhance future earnings.
Supportive ifInvestment volume is over $4.5 billion. This shows strong growth plans.
Worry ifInvestment volume is below $4.5 billion. This suggests weaker growth plans.
Why it matters: A lower Lease Price Index signals weakening pricing power and could hurt revenue growth.
Worry ifLease Price Index change below 16% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifLease Price Index change above 16% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Engine Leasing shows high demand and good investment strategies.
Supportive ifEngine Leasing segment profit growth exceeds 20% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEngine Leasing segment profit growth is below 10% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in fleet use shows weak demand and may hurt revenue.
Worry ifFleet utilization drops below 95% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifFleet use stays above 95% in Q3 2026.