Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.88-2.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.05 → 4.47 EPS · FY ending Aug 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GBX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex at $95 million for next quarter | Profit margins remain near 14% gross and 6.5% operating next quarter. | Intact | capex exceeds $110 million next quarter | Capital expenditures: $132.1M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: capex <= $95 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 2026132,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical industrial business with a recurring-revenue leasing component, rather than a clear durable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: lease-fleet execution is strong, while manufacturing progress and recent results remain concerns.
GBX is assessed as cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is negative, meaning the market’s assumptions appear more demanding than the current evidence supports. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the valuation alone does not resolve the concerns about recent performance.
Near-term results face risk: GBX missed its most recent quarter and has missed across recent quarters, while fiscal 2026 delivery guidance was lowered due to timing shifts. The lease fleet expanded and utilization was high in Q3, and lower administrative expense helped operating income improve, but manufacturing revenue continued to decline from Q2 to Q3.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether GBX can turn fleet growth into sustained recurring-revenue gains while resuming a gradual manufacturing ramp. A guidance cut on the next call would add a meaningful concern; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from rail-sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, GBX has evidence of progress in leasing and cost control, but recent misses, manufacturing softness, and a sector headwind leave the thesis cautious. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Greenbrier grows its lease fleet by double digits in 2026, boosting recurring revenue. |
| Intact |
| lease fleet growth falls below 5% YoY in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 14% and operating margin near 6.5%-6.8% | Profit margins remain near 14% gross and 6.5% operating next quarter. | Improving | gross margin falls below 12% or operating margin below 5% next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fiscal 2026 revenue at $2.4B to $2.5B | A primary condition in The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue between $2.4B and $2.5B. | Intact | revenue falls below $2.3B in FY26 | Revenue: $591M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: revenue between $2.4B and $2.5B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 26, 2026591,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.05 → $4.47 · observed estimates
$2.68B → $3.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.05 | $2,683,415,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.80 | $2,692,777,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.80 | $2,692,777,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.80 | $2,692,777,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.80 | $2,692,777,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.80 | $2,692,777,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.80 | $2,692,777,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.47 | $3,188,802,094 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.47 | $3,188,802,094 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.47 | $3,188,802,094 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.47 | $3,188,802,094 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.47 | $3,188,802,094 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.47 | $3,188,802,094 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.47 | $3,188,802,094 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.47 | $3,188,802,094 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $4.47 | $3,188,802,094 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.