The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.26+1.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GBX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
GBX — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-31
CEO — Lorie L. Tekorius: The CEO is retiring with a pre-announced, named internal successor (Brian J. Comstock) and a planned transition period, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Continued growth in the lease fleet supports recurring revenue. A slowdown could raise concerns about future earnings.
Supportive ifOwned lease fleet grows by more than 10% sequentially from 20,600 units in Q3.
Worry ifOwned lease fleet growth falls below 10% sequentially in Q4.
Why it matters: Gross margin trends show how well the company operates. A drop may mean cost issues.
Worry ifGross margin remains at or above 14.1% in Q4.
Less concerning ifGross margin falls below 13.8% in Q4.
Why it matters: Investing more in the lease fleet supports recurring revenue growth. Less investment may signal caution.
Supportive ifGreenbrier says spending on leasing and fleet management is over $205 million.
Worry ifGreenbrier says spending on leasing and fleet management is under $205 million.
Why it matters: More orders may show strong demand. This can support revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew railcar orders were above 2,200 units.
Worry ifNew railcar orders fall below 2,200 units.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,816 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Greenbrier aims for double-digit growth in its lease fleet. Progress signals strong demand and cash flow.
Supportive ifGreenbrier reports an increase in leased railcars by at least 10% year over year.
Worry ifFleet size remains flat or decreases year over year.
Why it matters: Fewer deliveries would show ongoing production problems. This could hurt revenue.
Worry ifQ4 railcar deliveries were less than 3,500 units.
Less concerning ifQ4 railcar deliveries were more than 3,500 units.
Why it matters: A drop would show worse efficiency. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ4 EBITDA margin was below 10%.
Less concerning ifQ4 EBITDA margin remains above 10%.
Why it matters: An EBITDA margin above 12% shows better efficiency. It also means more profit.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin is over 12% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifEBITDA margin is below 10% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: A change in utilization could signal shifts in demand for leasing services.
Watch forLease fleet utilization remains at or above 99%.
Also watch forLease fleet utilization drops below 99%.
Why it matters: Increasing investment in the lease fleet is key for double-digit growth. Progress signals confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifManagement reports a big increase in lease fleet investment. They aim for double-digit growth.
Worry ifManagement shows a slowdown or cutback in lease fleet investment plans.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow indicates healthy operations and supports dividend payments. A drop could raise concerns.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow reported above $150 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating cash flow reported below $150 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in fleet use may show less demand for leasing services.
Worry ifFleet use has stayed above 99% for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifFleet use falls below 98% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: This financing could enhance growth in the lease fleet and recurring revenue.
Supportive ifManagement reports increased lease fleet growth due to the new term loan.
Worry ifManagement says there are problems using the new term loan well.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance affects how investors feel. Confirmation shows stability, but a change may mean problems.
Worry ifManagement keeps the fiscal 2026 revenue guidance at $2.4B to $2.5B. There are no further cuts.
Less concerning ifManagement lowers the fiscal 2026 revenue guidance from $2.4B to less than $2.4B.
Why it matters: Growth in the lease fleet shows strong recurring revenue. This is a key goal for management.
Supportive ifLease fleet grows to 25,000 units by the end of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifLease fleet growth stalls below 20,000 units.
Why it matters: New orders show demand for railcars. This helps revenue growth and fleet expansion.
Supportive ifNew railcar orders exceed 3,000 units in a quarter.
Worry ifNew railcar orders fall below 2,500 units in a quarter.