The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.88-2.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GBX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GBX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-26
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filings made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Greenbrier guided to a 7.0%–7.5% operating margin for FY27. The result will test whether margins recover from Q4's 4.3%.
Watch forFY27 operating margin lands at or above 7.0%.
Also watch forFY27 operating margin falls below 7.0%.
Why it matters: Atlas's cooperation deal added Emanuel Pearlman to the board. The shareholder vote will test whether that board change moves ahead as planned.
Watch forPearlman is listed for election and wins a seat at Greenbrier's 2027 annual meeting.
Also watch forPearlman is not listed for election or does not join the board after the 2027 annual meeting.
Why it matters: The fleet grew 23% in FY26 and utilization was 98%. Keeping cars in use can support recurring lease revenue.
Supportive ifThe owned fleet grows beyond 20,900 units while utilization stays at or above 98%.
Worry ifThe owned fleet falls below 20,900 units or utilization drops below 98%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $266 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,590 loss on $10,000 · 35.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.