Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.65+1.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GCBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 38.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
GCBC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-22
Other Events On July 22, 2026, Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ-GCBC) today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.11 per share on the Company’s common stock. The dividend reflects an annual cash dividend rate of $0.44 per share which represents a 10.0% increase from the previous annual cash dividend of $0.40 per share. A press release announcing the details of the dividend declaration is filed as exhibit 99.1. Greene County Bancorp, MHC (the “MH…
Why it matters: Growth in net income backs the company’s strong performance. It shows good management and loyal customers.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $11.3 million, the amount reported for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 is below $11.3 million.
Why it matters: Strong Q3 earnings would show that GCBC maintains its growth momentum after record results.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings report shows net income growth exceeding 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows net income growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader economic issues affecting GCBC. It may impact performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: A stock buyback can boost share value and show confidence in the company's future. Delays could raise concerns.
Supportive ifThe company will start a stock buyback program for 400,000 shares.
Worry ifThe company will not start the stock buyback program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $319 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,361 loss on $10,000 · 13.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Confirming EPS guidance shows the company is on track with its growth strategy. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe company confirms EPS guidance of $1.74 for fiscal year 2026 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company revises EPS guidance down from $1.74 for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in total assets shows the business is expanding. It shows the company can attract deposits and loans.
Supportive ifTotal assets exceed $3.2 billion at the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal assets remain below $3.2 billion at the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in charge-offs could signal weakening credit quality. It would be a key indicator of loan performance.
Worry ifNet charge-offs for Q3 2026 exceed $65,000.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $65,000 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The buyback program shows management's confidence in the company's future. It can support share price and investor sentiment.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases at least 50,000 shares by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. A cut may mean problems.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company will lower the quarterly dividend to less than $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: Achieving EPS guidance shows growth and financial health. Missing it could raise red flags.
Worry ifThe company reports Q4 EPS of $1.74 or higher.
Less concerning ifQ4 EPS falls below $1.74.
Why it matters: A stable or rising net interest margin shows good management of interest income and costs. It shows the bank is making money.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is above 2.65% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 2.65%. This may show problems with managing interest income.
Why it matters: This payment shows the company values its shareholders. A successful payment means the company is stable.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as planned to shareholders of record on August 14, 2026.
Worry ifIf the dividend payment is late or canceled, it may mean financial problems.
Why it matters: Progress on the stock buyback indicates management's confidence in the company's value. It can support share price.
Supportive ifThe company buys back many shares. This shows strong action on the buyback plan.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased, suggesting a lack of confidence in the stock's value.