Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GCM Grosvenor, Inc. (GCMG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.53-3.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.08 → 1.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GCMG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted net income per share reaches $0.18 in 2026 | It aims to grow adjusted net income per share to $0.18 in 2026. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EPS falls below $0.16 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document PRESS RELEASE GCM Grosvenor Reports Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Results With GAAP Net Income of $9.6 Million, Fee-Related Earnings Up 21%, and Adjusted Net Income Up 22% Year-Over-Year CHICAGO, August 10, 2026 – GCM Grosvenor (Nasdaq: GCMG), a global alternative asset management solutions provider, today reported its results for the second quarter 2026.” “Document PRESS RELEASE GCM Grosvenor Reports First Quarter 2026 Earnings Results and Significant Progress Across Key Business Objectives with Substantial Growth in AUM and Fee-Paying AUM CHICAGO, May 7, 2026 – GCM Grosvenor (Nasdaq: GCMG), a global alternative asset management solutions provider, today reported its results for the first quarter and full year 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-sector growth story with some evidence of earnings quality, not a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is delivering adjusted earnings growth, but recent performance is below its industry cohort and confidence has eased to medium.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 16% premium, and the evidence labels expectations as stretched. The expectations gap is modestly positive, but the market appears to require continued execution to support that premium; the evidence does not show concentrated fragility.
Near term, adjusted net income per share growth is on track, up 22% year over year in 2026-Q2, with management guiding to about $0.19 per share for 2026. However, operating income fell from $54.7 million in 2025-Q4 to $20.5 million in 2026-Q2, while revenue momentum has been limited; the next guidance update and peer misses are key risks.
Over the next few quarters, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and a shift to rate cuts could weigh on GCMG and the broader financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as BLK, BX, and KKR would support sector momentum and the business setup.
Over a 1-to-3-year view, the thesis has support from adjusted earnings growth but is tempered by weaker operating income, limited revenue momentum, and an expensive valuation. The next guidance update and the direction of sector conditions are central to the case. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Private equity carry not delayed by hawkish rates | A supporting condition in GCM Grosvenor, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material delay in PE carry timing. | Intact | Hawkish policies delay PE carry by more than 6 months | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
New partnerships strengthen market position | A supporting condition in GCM Grosvenor, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or grow partnership deals. | Intact | No new partnerships or loss of key partners next year | New partnership (Banner Capital) secured in Jun 2026 vs target of sustain/grow GCM Grosvenor secured investment from Banner Capital in June 2026, reinforcing market position and partnership growth. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 11% in next 12 months | A primary condition in GCM Grosvenor, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.05 → $1.07 · observed estimates
$0.62B → $0.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.05 | $653,040,110 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.09 | $670,485,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.09 | $670,485,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.05 | $617,605,081 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.07 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.07 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.08 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.07 | $670,533,333 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.