GCM Grosvenor, Inc. (GCMG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.27-0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GCMG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GCMG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026 , GCM Grosvenor Inc. (the “Company”) reported financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release and earnings presentation issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhi…
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for GCMG. The sector has been easing.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 15%.
Why it matters: Continued growth in adjusted net income per share shows strong business performance. It aligns with management's priority to drive earnings growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted net income per share grows more than 22% year-over-year in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted net income per share growth is less than 22% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Operating income trends show how well the company makes money. A drop goes against management's goals.
Worry ifOperating income in Q3 is above $20.5 million.
Less concerning ifOperating income in Q3 falls below $20.5 million.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can show that management believes in the company. They also change share supply and investor feelings.
Supportive if$10 million or more in shares repurchased by the end of Q3.
Worry ifNo shares repurchased by the end of Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $295 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,643 loss on $10,000 · 26.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth is important for long-term success. A drop shows problems in keeping business going.
Watch forRevenue increases above $124.8 million in Q3.
Also watch forRevenue declines below $124.8 million in Q3.