Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GCT Semiconductor Holding Inc (GCTS)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.04-8.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GCTS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow turns positive | A supporting condition in GCT Semiconductor Holding Inc's published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow > 0 within next 4 quarters. | Broken | free cash flow remains negative beyond next 4 quarters | Free cash flow: $-16.877M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow > 0 within next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026-16,877,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. The thesis is in a watch state: shipment growth and improving operating measures are encouraging, but recent financial performance remains weak.
The evidence points to a durable premium versus peers, though confidence in that valuation assessment is low. The snapshot does not specify what earnings or growth expectations the market assumes, so the expectations gap is unclear; low fragility does not remove the risk from weak results.
Near term, shipment growth is a positive sign: 5G chipset shipments rose sequentially in both the first and second quarters of 2026, while revenue increased from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. Operating expenses fell and gross margin improved over that period, but the company is still loss-making and missed its two most recent reported quarters. The next earnings release remains a risk, while the increase in cash and expanded offering capacity support financial flexibility.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued 5G shipment growth translating into stronger financial performance and improved operating efficiency. A guidance cut on the next call would add pressure to the case; rate cuts or stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, but would not resolve company-specific execution risks.
For the next 1 to 3 years, GCTS has a developing growth story with evidence of shipment progress, but weak results, losses, and uncertain valuation expectations leave the long-term thesis fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS improvement toward break-even |
| A supporting condition in GCT Semiconductor Holding Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= -$0.04 in FY27. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains below -$0.29 in FY26 or fails to improve toward -$0.04 in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Ramp up 5G chipset shipments | The company aims to ramp up 5G chipset shipments, which is critical for future revenue. | Improving | 5G chipset shipments do not increase meaningfully in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from $21.6M in 2026 to $77.8M in 2027 | A primary condition in GCT Semiconductor Holding Inc's published investment case. The stated target is revenue >= $77.8M in FY27. | Broken | revenue falls below $21.6M in FY26 or fails to grow toward $77.8M in FY27 | Revenue: $971,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue >= $77.8M in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026971,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.04 → $-0.34 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.04 | $77,836,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.34 | $63,277,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.