GCT Semiconductor Holding Inc (GCTS)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.04-8.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GCTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
GCTS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 17.9% year over year, and gross margin was negative. A recovery would support GCT's claim that low sales caused the weak margin.
Supportive ifOn November 11, GCT reports Q3 revenue above $1.0 million and positive gross margin.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $1.0 million or less, or gross margin remains negative.
Why it matters: First shipments would show that a named satellite program has moved toward launch. A delay would push out that proof.
Supportive ifGCT reports first 5G chipset shipments to the satellite provider in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifGCT reports no first shipments to the provider by December 31, 2026, or says the launch has slipped.
Why it matters: The sector's growth pace is easing, while GCT's signals point to losses and elevated risk. Q3 shipment and revenue figures can show if company growth continues.
Watch forQ3 5G shipments exceed Q2's 5,100 units and revenue exceeds Q2's $1.0 million.
Also watch forQ3 shipments are 5,100 units or fewer, or revenue is $1.0 million or less.
Why it matters: GCT had $30.2 million in cash and expanded its ATM sale limit to $120 million. The next report can show whether cash supports the ramp without added stock sales.
Watch forQ3 cash is at least $30.2 million, with no reported ATM share sales since June 30.
Also watch forQ3 cash is below $30.2 million and GCT reports ATM share sales or a lower cash balance tied to operating needs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$287 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $908 loss on $10,000 · 9.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,265 loss on $10,000 · 72.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: GCT said second-half shipments would exceed first-half levels. Another rise would support its early ramp.
Supportive ifBy year-end 2026, reported second-half 5G shipments top first-half shipments. First-half shipments were about 8,100 units.
Worry ifReported second-half 5G shipments total 8,100 units or less.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA loss was $6.6 million, while low sales left gross margin negative. Lower costs or better sales can ease the loss.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is under $6.6 million. Operating expenses are $7.2 million or less.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is more than $6.6 million. Operating expenses are more than $7.2 million.