GCT Semiconductor Holding Inc (GCTS)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.77+1.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GCTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 89.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GCTS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Better efficiency can lower costs and increase profits.
Supportive ifManagement shares a plan to cut operational costs by 10% or more.
Worry ifNo news or plans to improve efficiency are given.
Why it matters: Keeping cash reserves helps them with operations and growth.
Supportive ifCash and cash equivalents reported above $30 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents reported below $30 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show bigger problems for GCT Semiconductor.
Worry ifSector revenue growth has been below its median for two months.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the same period.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how much money the company makes and how well it runs.
Watch forThe Q2 2026 earnings report shows revenue growth over 287% compared to last year.
Also watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows revenue growth below 287% year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$351 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $843 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,362 loss on $10,000 · 53.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Progress in this partnership could expand GCT's market reach and boost revenue from 5G chipsets.
Supportive ifThe company will ship its first 5G chipsets to the satellite partner in H2 2026.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays in the shipment schedule for the partnership.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean they are more efficient as 5G sales go up.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 49.3% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 49.3% in Q3.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery from loss-making status.
Supportive ifThe earnings report shows that revenue is growing. The company is becoming profitable.
Worry ifEarnings report shows continued losses and no revenue growth.
Why it matters: Better efficiency can cut costs and raise profits. This is important for the company's future.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings show a reduction in operational costs by at least 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings report shows costs staying the same or going up compared to last year.
Why it matters: More 5G shipments are important for GCT's revenue and market position.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 5G chipset shipments increase sequentially above 5,100 units from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 2026 5G chipset shipments fall below 5,100 units.
Why it matters: A bigger net loss shows worse financial health. It also shows operational problems.
Worry ifQ3 net loss exceeds $20.4 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net loss is less than or equal to $20.4 million.
Why it matters: Changes in cash show financial health. They also show the ability to support growth.
Watch forCash and cash equivalents increase above $30.2 million in Q3 2026.
Also watch forCash and cash equivalents decrease below $30.2 million in Q3 2026.