General Dynamics (GD)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$359.39-1.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $359 GD trades at 22× p/e, below its 30× p/e peer median. Our $385 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $384–$465. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $415.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $955.59 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $1281.84 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $122.18 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$384.00 – $465.00 (median $415.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-08-10
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 18% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 5.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $14.79/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2017-Q2, 2017-Q3, 2018-Q3, 2019-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $190.18 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $620.73 | 27.0 | 23.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $716.03 | 30.4 | 23.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $501.83 | 27.8 | 18.06 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $644.76 | 3.3 | 195.68 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $461.57 | 28.2 | 16.39 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $133.44 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $365.53 | 22.3 | 16.39 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $516.09 | 30.3 | 17.02 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $1088.99 | 30.4 | 35.85 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $583.16 | 27.8 | 20.99 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $798.34 | 3.3 | 242.29 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $591.13 | 28.2 | 20.99 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $468.13 | 22.3 | 20.99 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $1440.20 | 30.4 | 47.41 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $670.15 | 27.8 | 24.12 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $917.43 | 3.3 | 278.43 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $679.31 | 28.2 | 24.12 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $537.96 | 22.3 | 24.12 | Analyst | high |