Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
General Dynamics (GD)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$364.87-2.57%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
18.62 → 18.79 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operating activities to positive levels | A supporting condition in General Dynamics's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operating activities positive next 4 quarters. | Intact | Cash from operating activities remains negative over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $1.71B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operating activities positive next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 20261,710,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GD is a large industrial business with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The multi-year view is intact, though confidence is medium and recent financial performance is rated neutral.
The valuation evidence is mixed: GD is described as cheap versus peers, while the peer comparison also shows a premium, and the expectations gap is slightly negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Revenue rose from $12,907 million in 2025-Q3 to $14,566 million in 2026-Q3, and backlog was higher year over year. Nine-month free cash flow also increased, while higher capital spending supports capacity investment but has not yet been linked to a measured output gain. Near term, the miss risk is rated low, but a guidance cut or a weaker industrials backdrop could challenge execution.
The thesis depends on GD continuing to grow revenue and backlog while turning capacity investment into stronger execution. A guidance cut on the next call is a stated negative scenario. Continued strength from industrials bellwethers would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business evidence supports an intact long-term thesis, but the neutral performance and management assessments and the sector headwind keep the outlook balanced. The main tests are guidance, capacity execution, and the industrials backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Meet EPS guidance of $4.1 per share in fiscal 2026 | EPS guidance for 2026 is $4.1 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $4.1 per share in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $4.49 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=4.1 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20264.49 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annually | A primary condition in General Dynamics's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.9% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below ~4.9% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$18.26 → $18.79 · observed estimates
$57.84B → $59.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $18.26 | $57,840,863,980 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-07-25 | $18.26 | $57,840,863,980 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $18.26 | $57,840,863,980 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $18.30 | $57,948,370,212 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $18.26 | $57,840,863,980 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-07-29 | $18.30 | $57,948,370,210 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $18.26 | $57,840,863,980 | 19 / 23 |
| 2026-07-31 | $18.48 | $58,424,687,373 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $18.48 | $58,424,687,373 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $18.48 | $58,424,687,373 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $18.50 | $58,339,794,100 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $18.50 | $58,339,794,100 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $18.53 | $58,432,910,550 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $18.48 | $58,424,687,373 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $18.51 | $58,484,823,984 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $18.54 | $58,437,301,860 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $18.54 | $58,437,301,860 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $18.54 | $58,437,301,860 | 20 / 23 |
| 2026-08-12 | $18.51 | $58,484,823,984 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $18.51 | $58,484,823,984 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $18.51 | $58,484,823,984 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $18.51 | $58,484,823,984 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $18.51 | $58,484,823,984 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $18.51 | $58,484,823,984 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $18.51 | $58,484,823,984 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $18.51 | $58,484,823,984 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $18.56 | $58,585,782,820 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $18.59 | $58,680,370,060 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $18.59 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $18.61 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $18.61 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $18.61 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $18.61 | $58,680,363,242 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $18.62 | $58,683,185,001 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $18.62 | $58,683,185,001 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $18.62 | $58,683,185,001 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $18.62 | $58,683,185,001 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $18.62 | $58,683,185,001 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-04 | $18.62 | $58,683,185,001 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-05 | $18.62 | $58,683,185,001 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-06 | $18.62 | $58,704,053,183 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-07 | $18.62 | $58,704,053,183 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-08 | $18.63 | $58,729,235,001 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-09 | $18.63 | $58,741,633,359 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-10-10 | $18.63 | $58,753,269,723 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-11 | $18.63 | $58,753,269,723 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-12 | $18.63 | $58,753,269,723 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-13 | $18.63 | $58,753,269,723 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-14 | $18.63 | $58,753,271,832 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-15 | $18.63 | $58,753,271,832 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-16 | $18.63 | $58,748,226,377 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-17 | $18.63 | $58,748,226,377 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-18 | $18.63 | $58,748,226,377 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-19 | $18.63 | $58,748,226,377 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $18.63 | $58,748,226,377 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $18.62 | $58,720,612,590 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $18.69 | $59,020,791,152 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $18.69 | $59,020,791,152 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $18.70 | $59,050,776,338 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $18.76 | $59,388,627,904 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $18.79 | $59,560,981,998 | 16 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.