General Dynamics (GD)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$359.39-1.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
GD — President transition
Dated 2026-08-07
Director — Danny Deep: Danny Deep was elected as a member of the Board and will also continue to serve as president of the Company.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the dividend per share will stay the same or go up.
Worry ifManagement announces a cut to the dividend per share.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows strong future revenue potential. It shows demand in different areas.
Supportive ifTotal backlog increases from $130.8 billion in Q1 2026.
Worry ifTotal backlog decreases or stays flat from $130.8 billion in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand across segments.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 8% year over year.
Why it matters: Management expects EPS of $4.10 for 2026. This shows strong earnings potential.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS reported at or above $4.10.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS reported below $4.10.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows good financial health. This boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe company will raise its dividend in 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend for 2026.
Why it matters: Management has focused on cash conversion. Strong cash flow is crucial for funding operations and dividends.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $2 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations is under $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Dividend growth reflects financial health. Stalling growth could indicate cash flow or profit issues.
Worry ifDividend per share growth stalls or decreases in Q3.
Less concerning ifDividend per share increases in Q3.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue and steady demand.
Supportive ifBacklog grows to over $140 billion.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or fails to grow beyond $136.5 billion.
Why it matters: This report will show if the growth trend continues. Investors will focus on revenue and EPS growth.
Watch forQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 2026 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with spending and growing dividends. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $1.6 billion in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $1.6 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: An update on EPS guidance will show how management feels about future earnings. This is key for investors.
Watch forManagement raises EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026. This is above current estimates.
Also watch forManagement lowers EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026. This is below current estimates.
Why it matters: Increasing dividends signals strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases from $1.50 in Q3 2025 to $1.60 in Q4 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $1.50 or decreases in 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is healthy. It also builds trust with investors.
Watch forDividends per share remain stable or increase in the next quarter.
Also watch forDividends per share are cut or suspended in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong order activity indicates demand and can drive future revenue growth. It's a key metric for performance.
Supportive ifTotal orders in Q2 2026 exceed $20 billion.
Worry ifTotal orders in Q2 2026 fall below $15 billion.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth may mean better demand for General Dynamics' products.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, nearing 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower book-to-bill ratio shows fewer orders. This may hurt future revenue.
Worry ifBook-to-bill ratio drops below 1.0 in Q3.
Less concerning ifBook-to-bill ratio remains above 1.0 in Q3.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and paying dividends, reflecting financial health.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $1 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow remains above $1 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending shows a focus on growth and helps expand operations.
Supportive ifCapital spending is over $300 million in Q3.
Worry ifCapital spending is under $300 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$74 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $206 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,453 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.