Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Green Dot Corp. (GDOT)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.76+2.49%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.50 → 1.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GDOT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete acquisition of CommerceOne Financial Corporation | The company aims to complete its acquisition of CommerceOne, which should expand its business and support revenue growth. | Intact | acquisition fails to close or is significantly delayed beyond 2026 | Shareholder approval secured (June 2026) vs target close by end-2026 News confirms CommerceOne shareholders approved the pending acquisition on June 24, 2026, strongly reinforcing the completion objective. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GDOT is a financial-sector business with a strategic acquisition milestone, rather than a clear turnaround or a proven durable compounder on the current evidence. Its long-term thesis is on watch: management is stable and earnings quality is robust, but recent financial performance is weak and company momentum has worsened.
The valuation evidence is mixed: GDOT is described as cheap versus peers, while its valuation is also marked expensive and the expectations gap is 1.15. The priced-in assessment calls the valuation unjustified, though overall fragility is low. The snapshot does not specify exactly what earnings or growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, fundamentals face pressure after the August earnings miss, erratic recent surprises, and performance well below the industry cohort. Management has kept the CommerceOne acquisition on track for an expected Q3 2026 close, pending regulatory approval; this remains a key execution milestone. The snapshot reports progress on earlier revenue and adjusted EBITDA priorities, but those goals relate to FY 2025 and do not establish the current trajectory.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while falling interest rates could weigh on the financial sector backdrop. Continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express could support sector momentum. The multi-year thesis also hinges on completing the CommerceOne acquisition and improving the weak recent performance.
Over the next one to three years, GDOT’s thesis depends on acquisition execution and a recovery in business performance, with near-term guidance and sector conditions as important swing factors. The evidence is mixed, and the thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The parties received the required shareholder approvals as well as early termination of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, and have filed regulatory applications with all applicable U.S. federal and state bank authorities.” “The transactions are expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2026, subject to approval by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Alabama State Banking Department and the Utah Department of Financial Institutions and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions.”
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026EPS grows to at least $1.51 in 2026 | A supporting condition in Green Dot Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $1.51. | Improving | EPS falls below $1.31 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $-0.04 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.51. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026-0.0368 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income improves to positive territory | Green Dot is improving net income from a loss of $47 million in 2025-Q2 to a profit of $53.8 million in 2026-Q1. | Intact | net income falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $-2.087M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $53.8M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 2026-2,087,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 6% annually | A primary condition in Green Dot Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue growth >= 6% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 18.19% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue growth >= 6% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202618.189481 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.67 → $1.50 · observed estimates
$2.39B → $2.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.67 | $2,386,900,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.50 | $2,544,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.50 | $2,544,003,100 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.