Green Dot Corp. (GDOT)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.33+0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GDOT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 117.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 108.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GDOT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, Green Dot Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and certain other financial information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.01 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report, including the exhibits hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 o…
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the financial sector. A drop below median signals trouble.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on approvals are key for the acquisition schedule. Delays could affect plans.
Watch forRegulators have approved the acquisition. It can now move forward.
Also watch forRegulators have delayed or denied approval. This stops the acquisition.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth shows strong demand. It also shows success during ongoing changes.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is at least 17% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Better net income shows Green Dot is managing costs well and working efficiently.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 is much better than in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income goes down or stays negative. This shows ongoing financial issues.
Why it matters: A decline in active accounts could indicate weakening demand in the B2B segment.
Worry ifActive accounts in B2B services fall below 1.9 million.
Less concerning ifActive accounts in B2B services increase above 1.9 million.
Why it matters: Improving net income reflects the success of Green Dot's efforts to optimize its balance sheet.
Supportive ifNet income shows a positive trend, reaching over $50 million in upcoming quarters.
Worry ifNet income stays negative or goes down more.
Why it matters: More active accounts show good partnerships. This means growth in the BaaS segment.
Supportive ifActive accounts in B2B Services exceed 2 million.
Worry ifActive accounts in B2B Services decline or stagnate.
Why it matters: The acquisition is a key step for Green Dot's growth strategy. It will shape the future of both Green Dot and CommerceOne.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in Q3 2026. It needs regulatory approvals first.
Worry ifThe deal may be delayed. It might not get the needed regulatory approvals.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how profitable a company is. Good results will show progress.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $165 million for FY 2025.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $150 million for FY 2025.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong business growth. It means good potential ahead.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for FY 2025 reaches $2.0 billion or more.
Worry ifTotal revenue for FY 2025 falls below $1.8 billion.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,095 loss on $10,000 · 30.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.