Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc. (GDYN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.75+2.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GDYN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 138.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 128.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GDYN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 19…
Why it matters: Q3 EBITDA margin reached 20%, above management's margin goal. A Q4 miss would test whether that gain can last.
Worry ifQ4 2026 non-GAAP EBITDA is below $20 million, the low end of the $20 million to $22 million guide.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 non-GAAP EBITDA is at least $20 million and its margin stays near or above 20%.
Why it matters: TMT was the largest Q3 revenue source and grew 29.3% year over year. Slower growth would weaken a key driver.
Worry ifA later quarterly release reports TMT revenue growth below 29.3% year over year.
Less concerning ifTMT revenue growth stays at or above 29.3% year over year, with sequential growth above zero.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue beat its guide, and TMT and retail both grew. Another beat would extend that growth trend.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue is above the top of the $113.5 million to $115.5 million guide.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $113.5 million.
Why it matters: The company spent $35.5 million of its $50 million share buyback plan through Q3. Further purchases would show continued use of that plan.
Supportive ifA company filing or results report shows buybacks above $35.5 million. The total is no more than the $50 million plan limit.
Worry ifA company release says the buyback plan ended. Or it reports no more purchases before the plan expires.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $507 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,821 loss on $10,000 · 48.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: AI revenue share rose from 29.3% in Q1 to 31% in Q3. More growth would show that AI work is taking a larger share of sales.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows AI revenue above 31% of total revenue. It also shows year-over-year AI growth above 45%.
Worry ifAI revenue share falls below 30%, or year-over-year AI revenue growth falls below 45%.