Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$5.08 → $5.16 · observed estimates
Greif, Inc. (GEF)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$73.38-4.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.08 → 5.16 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GEF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete $150M share repurchase program | It finished a $150 million share buyback program, showing strong capital use. | Intact | share repurchase program remains incomplete past Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The $150 million share repurchase program was nearly completed with $130 million repurchased by 2026-Q1 and fully completed by 2026-Q2. Additionally, the Board authorized $300 million of future repurchases. Management is delivering on the share repurchase commitment. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$5.08 → $5.16 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cautious, execution-dependent multi-year view, not a clear turnaround or a high-confidence growth story. Recent momentum improved and the latest reported earnings were positive, but confidence is medium and earnings quality remains fragile.
The evidence tags valuation as justified, with low priced-in fragility and a slightly negative expectations gap. It does not provide a peer comparison, so whether GEF is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear.
Near term, management has made steady progress on cost savings, reaching a $90 million run rate toward at least $120 million in cumulative savings by fiscal 2027. Fiscal 2026 guidance was lowered slightly to an EBITDA range of $615 million to $635 million and free cash flow of $305 million to $325 million, reflecting subdued demand; a further guidance cut is a key risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued cost savings and management delivering on its cautious fiscal 2026 outlook. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength among packaging and materials peers could sustain a tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GEF has improving momentum and evidence of cost execution, but subdued demand and fragile earnings quality leave the thesis dependent on delivery and sector support. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve $120M cost optimization by fiscal year end | A primary condition in Greif, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $120 million run-rate cost optimization. | Intact | cost optimization run-rate falls below $75 million by FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cost optimization run-rate savings increased from $50 million at 2025-Q4 to $65 million at 2026-Q1 and $90 million at 2026-Q2. Management reaffirmed the target of at least $120 million cumulative savings by fiscal 2027. The trajectory shows delivering consistent progress toward the stated cost optimization goal. Delivery assessment Oct 29, 2026 |
Maintain free cash flow near $310M | Earnings beat estimates recently and free cash flow guidance was raised to $310 million. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $250 million in FY25 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 1.6% annually | A supporting condition in Greif, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 1.6% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 1% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.56B → $4.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $5.08 | $4,558,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.08 | $4,558,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.08 | $4,558,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.08 | $4,558,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.08 | $4,558,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.08 | $4,558,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.08 | $4,558,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.08 | $4,558,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.08 | $4,557,275,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.08 | $4,557,275,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.08 | $4,557,275,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.08 | $4,557,275,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.03 | $4,543,950,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.03 | $4,543,950,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.03 | $4,543,950,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.03 | $4,543,950,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.03 | $4,543,950,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.07 | $4,530,160,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.07 | $4,530,160,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.06 | $4,539,720,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.06 | $4,539,720,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.16 | $4,563,825,000 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.