Greif, Inc. (GEF)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$85.00-0.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GEF — legal / regulatory event — Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation o…
Dated 2026-05-14
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. (A) Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation The information concerning the satisfaction of the Company’s obligations under the Existing TAA is set forth in Items 10.1 and 10.2, which information is incorporated herein by reference. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
Why it matters: A positive shift in sector revenue could signal a recovery in demand for Greif's products.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for three years.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays negative for another quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing this program shows good use of money and trust in the company’s finances.
Supportive ifThe $150 million stock buyback program is fully completed.
Worry ifThe share repurchase program is not completed by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or rising revenue shows demand is coming back in a weak market.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth turns positive compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifQ3 revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: New M&A activity could signal growth and strategic direction. It may also impact revenue and market position.
Supportive ifThere is news of a successful merger or acquisition. This boosts revenue or market share.
Worry ifNo new merger or acquisition news shows slow growth efforts.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,951 loss on $10,000 · 19.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing this program signals strong capital allocation and confidence in the business. It can support share price.
Supportive ifGreif announces the completion of the $150 million share repurchase program by the end of fiscal Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe share repurchase program is not completed by the end of fiscal Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Successful M&A can enhance growth and improve market position for Greif.
Supportive ifGreif announced a successful acquisition. This fits their growth plan.
Worry ifThere are no new M&A announcements. There is also no bad news on recent deals.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Greif can improve its financial performance after a recent miss.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Also watch forEarnings per share misses analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows Greif's ability to manage costs and improve margins. It reflects operational strength.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save at least $120 million by the end of 2027.
Worry ifCumulative cost savings fall short of $120 million by fiscal year-end 2027.
Why it matters: Clear plans on capital use show Greif's aim to improve its finances.
Supportive ifManagement shares a new plan that focuses on paying down debt.
Worry ifNo new updates or mixed signals about capital use.