Greif, Inc. (GEF)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$73.38-4.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GEF — legal / regulatory event — Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation o…
Dated 2026-05-14
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. (A) Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation The information concerning the satisfaction of the Company’s obligations under the Existing TAA is set forth in Items 10.1 and 10.2, which information is incorporated herein by reference. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
Why it matters: Greif has started a new repurchase plan after finishing its earlier one. Actual purchases would confirm the plan is active.
Watch forGreif reports share purchases under the new authorization, with the amount and share class stated.
Also watch forGreif reports no purchases under the new plan in the next quarterly update, or suspends the plan.
Why it matters: Savings can help Greif protect earnings while demand stays weak. The latest reported run rate was $90 million.
Supportive ifGreif reports cumulative run-rate savings of at least $120 million by fiscal 2027 year-end.
Worry ifGreif reports less than $120 million in total run-rate savings by fiscal 2027 year-end, or lowers the target.
Why it matters: Greif cut its outlook amid weak demand. Results near or above the range would show it can meet its plan.
Watch forThe November 3 report shows fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of at least $615 million. Adjusted free cash flow is at least $305 million.
Also watch forThe November 3 report shows fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA below $615 million or adjusted free cash flow below $305 million. It also counts if either range is cut.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $226 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,951 loss on $10,000 · 19.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.