Great Elm Group Inc (GEG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.22+0.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 43.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GEG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Great Elm Group, Inc. issued the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The foregoing information (including the Exhibit 99.1 hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filin…
Why it matters: Ongoing changes in GECC's share price may cause more unrealized losses for GEG.
Worry ifIf GECC's share price goes up or stays steady, unrealized losses go down.
Less concerning ifIf GECC's share price drops more, unrealized losses could go over $10 million.
Why it matters: More buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifTotal stock repurchases exceed $25 million by the next earnings report.
Worry ifTotal stock buybacks are below $15 million. This suggests a lack of confidence.
Why it matters: An earnings miss shows ongoing financial problems. This could affect how investors feel.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report confirms the earnings miss with results worse than expected.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows results better than the preannouncement.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows that GEG is running its business well, even with challenges.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for Q3 exceeds $3.4 million, showing growth above 7%.
Worry ifTotal revenue for Q3 is under $3.2 million. This shows weak performance.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $382 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,864 loss on $10,000 · 38.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows progress. It means better operating income and financial health.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q3 is less than $(13.5) million.
Worry ifNet loss in Q3 is greater than $(13.5) million, showing continued financial challenges.
Why it matters: Management wants to cut net losses. This shows better financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to a loss of less than $(10) million in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse, with losses over $(14) million in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Growing real estate revenue is key to GEG's long-term strategy and financial health.
Supportive ifReal estate platform revenue reaches $5 million in Q4 2026, showing strong growth.
Worry ifReal estate platform revenue is below $5 million in Q4 2026. This shows no growth.
Why it matters: More stock repurchases show management's confidence. They believe in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifStock repurchases are over $10 million in Q3.
Worry ifStock buybacks are below $10 million. This shows less confidence from management.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow helps management's goal. They want to increase cash from operations.
Supportive ifCash from operations is more than $6 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operating activities is under $6 million. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Lower net losses show GEG is managing costs better. They are also running operations well.
Supportive ifNet losses for Q3 are less than -$10 million, indicating better financial health.
Worry ifNet losses for Q3 remain worse than -$13.5 million, showing continued struggles.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows that costs are being managed and losses are going down.
Supportive ifOperating income is now positive. It improved from -$3.97 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or gets worse in Q3.
Why it matters: The financial sector is easing; a drop in revenue growth could indicate further challenges for Great Elm Group.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Good earnings would show a turnaround after a recent miss and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifEarnings results meet or beat analyst expectations in Q3.
Worry ifEarnings results do not meet analyst expectations again in Q3.
Why it matters: This shows strong growth in the real estate platform. It supports management's growth target.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue exceeds $3.74 million, which is a 10% increase from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue is under $3.74 million. This shows slower growth.
Why it matters: This target is key for growth in GEG's real estate platform. It shows management's ability to scale operations.
Supportive ifMonomoy REIT reports revenue of $20 million or more in fiscal 2026.
Worry ifMonomoy REIT fails to reach $15 million in revenue for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health. It also shows that management is focused on improvement.
Supportive ifNet loss for fiscal 2027 is less than $(35.4) million.
Worry ifNet loss for fiscal 2027 exceeds $(35.4) million.
Why it matters: Unrealized losses affect GEG’s financial results. Keeping track of this shows its overall impact.
Worry ifUnrealized losses on GECC investments drop from $(22.2) million in fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifUnrealized losses on GECC investments go up or stay high in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: More cash from operations helps growth plans. It also shows better performance.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities goes up year over year in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifCash from operating activities goes down year over year in fiscal 2027.