Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.17-8.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.79 → 1.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GEO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Enhance net income above $38M quarterly | Profit and net income improved sharply in Q1, showing better cost control and financial management. | Improving | Net income falls below $20 million in any quarter | Net income: $47.503M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $38 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202647,503,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GEO is a growth-and-improving-profitability business, with recent results supporting a constructive long-term thesis. The thesis is intact, but management volatility, elevated risk, and a headwind from its sector leave meaningful uncertainty.
The evidence rates GEO as cheap versus peers, while also showing that valuation has risen recently. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, and the priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility.
Over the multi-year view, recent revenue and profitability gains support continued progress if contract growth and cost execution persist. Near term, the miss risk is rated low, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, especially given a deep miss in the company’s recent history and a high-miss-rate industry.
The thesis depends on GEO continuing to win and expand contracts while improving operating income and adjusted EBITDA. Near-term signals include the next guidance update and whether industrial bellwethers keep beating and guiding higher, or instead begin to miss and guide lower.
GEO’s 1-to-3-year view is supported by strong recent financial performance and active execution, but elevated risk and sector conditions make the path uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in GEO Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or grow operating income above $89M. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating income falls below $60M in any quarter |
Operating income: $101.703M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or grow operating income above $89M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026101,703,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We increased our full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $550 million to $560 million.” “With respect to expenses, our guidance assumes a more moderate contribution from labor cost savings for the second half of 2026.” Operating income was $101.703 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Manage regulatory and legal challenges without revenue loss | A primary condition in GEO Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material revenue decline or cost increase from regulatory/legal issues. | Intact | Material revenue decline or cost increase due to regulatory/legal events | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near $3.03B in FY26 | A primary condition in GEO Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.025 billion. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $2.95 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $732.072M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.025 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026732,072,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.66 → $1.85 · observed estimates
$3.24B → $3.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.66 | $3,242,309,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.62 | $3,187,143,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.62 | $3,187,143,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.62 | $3,187,143,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.71 | $3,265,231,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.71 | $3,265,231,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.67 | $3,242,309,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.79 | $3,265,231,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.79 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.79 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.85 | $3,264,796,800 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.