GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.77+2.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GEO — CFO transition
Dated 2026-03-05
Chief Financial Officer — Mark J. Suchinski: Mark J. Suchinski is leaving the company to relocate out-of-state and accept a position in another industry.
Why it matters: The outcome may affect financial reserves and legal costs. This could lower net income.
Worry ifThe U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of GEO in the Nwauzor case.
Less concerning ifThe U.S. Supreme Court rules against GEO, leading to increased financial reserves.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change financial goals. They can also affect how well the company does.
Watch forPositive financial results were reported under the new CFO by Q3 2026.
Also watch forNegative financial results were reported under the new CFO by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifShare repurchases reach $400 million or more by year-end 2026.
Worry ifShare buybacks stay below $350 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: New contracts could increase revenue and show management's focus on growth.
Supportive ifNew contracts worth over $100 million in yearly revenue are announced.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced in the Secure Services segment for the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $377 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,235 loss on $10,000 · 42.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows operational issues. This could affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $140 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $145 million.
Why it matters: Better operating income means GEO is controlling costs and growing.
Supportive ifOperating income rises by over 10% from Q1 results.
Worry ifOperating income falls or grows less than 5% from Q1 results.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if GEO can keep growing revenue as it aims to improve.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth guidance is above 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth guidance is below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: The outcome of this case could impact financial reserves and future liabilities. It is critical for risk management.
Worry ifA positive ruling lowers financial risks from the case.
Less concerning ifA negative ruling raises financial risks or needs more reserves.
Why it matters: Net income results will show if GEO is making more money as planned.
Supportive ifNet income increases by more than 15% compared to Q1 results.
Worry ifNet income decreases or grows less than 5% compared to Q1 results.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows weaker performance. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net income prints below $45 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 net income exceeds $48 million.
Why it matters: Successful transitions can bring in more money from these contracts. This will improve overall performance.
Supportive ifThe Graceville and Bay facilities need to change by July 1, 2026.
Worry ifThere may be delays or problems in transitioning these facilities.
Why it matters: The result can change money and how the company runs. It also affects possible debts.
Worry ifSupreme Court rules for GEO. This reduces possible liabilities.
Less concerning ifSupreme Court rules against GEO. This raises liabilities a lot.
Why it matters: Changes in management can change how money is spent. This includes share buybacks.
Watch forThere is news of a continued or bigger share buyback program.
Also watch forThere is news of a pause or cut in share buybacks.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this guidance shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifNet income from GEO Operations is at least $45 million.
Worry ifNet income falls below $45 million.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value. This helps returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifGEO will announce more share buybacks in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new share buybacks will be announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Activating these facilities will bring in a lot of money. Each facility can make about $80-$85 million each year.
Supportive ifBoth facilities will be active and running by the end of 2026.
Worry ifActivation is delayed beyond 2026 or fails to meet revenue expectations.