GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.53-1.92%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
GEO — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-08
Other Events. On October 5, 2026, concurrently with the closing of the A&R Credit Agreement described in
Why it matters: GEO says the two ICE sites could add about $165 million in yearly sales. Their start-up is not in 2026 guidance.
Supportive ifGEO reports both sites are running normally by early 2027. Revenue is near the stated $85 million and $80 million yearly rates.
Worry ifEither site misses the early 2027 start, or GEO reports a delay or lower yearly revenue rate.
Why it matters: This checks GEO's latest earnings outlook. Q3 results are due on November 5, 2026.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA is at least $145 million, above the top of GEO's stated range.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $140 million, under the bottom of GEO's stated range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$155 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $400 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,859 loss on $10,000 · 28.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.