Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$-0.79 → $-0.79 · observed estimates
Geospace Technologies Corp (GEOS)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.60-8.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GEOS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain CAPEX budget at $5 million | The company plans to keep capital spending at $5 million in fiscal 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $5 million significantly in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $306,000 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX = $5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026306,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$-0.79 → $-0.79 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style thesis, not a proven durable compounder. Management is stable and is cutting costs, but recent performance is weak and earnings quality is fragile, so the multi-year view remains on watch.
GEOS is described as cheap versus peers, while the model shows a modestly negative expectations gap. The evidence says the discount reflects weak execution and sector turbulence, but not the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after misses across recent quarters. Management is targeting roughly $12 million in annualized savings and maintaining a $5 million 2026 capital spending budget, but ongoing losses show that profitability progress remains limited. Smart Water revenue has declined, adding pressure despite management's continued focus on Hydroconn and Aquana.
The next earnings update is a key swing factor: a guidance cut would add to concerns about weak execution, while continued misses would keep near-term risk high. Over the multi-year view, cost savings and demand for Hydroconn and Aquana need to support better financial results. Energy-sector conditions also matter, with bellwether results providing signals about whether the sector tailwind persists or fades.
The 1-3 year thesis depends on GEOS turning cost discipline and its product focus into improved results, while navigating elevated earnings risk and changes in the sector backdrop. The evidence supports a watchful, uncertain view rather than a demonstrated recovery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our priorities remain clear: execute on existing programs, expand the markets for our technology, improve performance in Smart Water, and allocate capital prudently.” “These steps are intended to strengthen operating leverage, support disciplined capital management, and position our company to respond more effectively to evolving customer demand while maintaining focus on its core growth initiatives.”
Achieve $10 million annualized savings from workforce reduction | Geospace is cutting costs by reducing its workforce by 20%, aiming to save $10 million annually. | Intact | annualized savings fall below $10 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Limit revenue decline to no worse than -2% next year | A primary condition in Geospace Technologies Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= -2% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | revenue decline worse than -2% YoY next year | Revenue growth: -36.38% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -2% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 7, 2026-36.384495 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.79 | $74,310,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.