Geospace Technologies Corp (GEOS)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.38+4.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -28.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GEOS — workforce reduction
Dated 2026-04-06
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities Geospace Technologies Corporation (the "Company") executive management has been evaluating opportunities to operate more efficiently and profitably by optimizing the Company's cost structure. At the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, the Company’s executive management implemented an organizational change plan, which included a Voluntary Early Retirement plan available to eligible qualifying employees as well as a Reduction in Force…
Why it matters: Revenue below this level shows demand problems. Stabilization may mean orders are improving.
Supportive ifSmart Water segment revenue exceeds $5 million for the next quarter.
Worry ifSmart Water segment revenue stays below $5 million for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Hitting the $12 million savings goal could help financial results.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached or passed the $12 million savings goal.
Worry ifManagement says savings from job cuts are less than $12 million.
Why it matters: New contracts would signal demand recovery and growth potential in this segment.
Supportive ifNew contracts or big project wins are announced in the Energy Solutions segment.
Worry ifNo new contracts are announced for the next quarter. This shows demand is weak.
Why it matters: Staying under the $5 million CAPEX budget is important for financial health.
Worry ifManagement confirms CAPEX spending is on track or below $5 million.
Less concerning ifCAPEX spending goes over $5 million without a good reason.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$242 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $960 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,194 loss on $10,000 · 81.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is moving toward profitability. This is a key moment for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows a big rise in revenue or smaller losses.
Also watch forEarnings report shows ongoing losses or falling revenue.
Why it matters: Reducing workforce costs is key to improving the company's financial health. Investors will look for updates on this plan.
Supportive ifManagement will announce a percentage of workforce cuts by the next earnings date.
Worry ifNo progress is reported on workforce reductions by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: New contracts would indicate a recovery in demand after recent revenue declines. This could support long-term growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts or orders in the Smart Water segment.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced in the Smart Water segment over the next few months.
Why it matters: Improved revenue growth in the energy sector could benefit Geospace. It may indicate a shift in the sector's growth phase.
Supportive ifEnergy sector revenue growth exceeds 2%, suggesting a return to growth.
Worry ifRevenue growth is at or below 2%. This shows that growth is still slow.
Why it matters: Doing well on the $10.8 million contract could help cash flow and boost investor trust.
Supportive ifUpdates show progress on the U.S. Navy contract.
Worry ifDelays or issues reported in the U.S. Navy contract execution.
Why it matters: Growth in this area could show demand is back for seismic equipment.
Supportive ifEnergy Solutions makes more money every quarter. Their revenue is now over $6 million.
Worry ifEnergy Solutions revenue falls more, staying below $6 million.
Why it matters: Strong demand in these markets could boost revenue and market position.
Supportive ifManagement says there are more orders or contracts for Hydroconn and Aquana.
Worry ifDemand remains weak or decreases in these markets.
Why it matters: A drop in Smart Water revenue shows ongoing demand problems. This affects overall growth.
Worry ifQ2 Smart Water segment revenue down year over year worse than 60.6%.
Less concerning ifSmart Water segment revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A successful workforce reduction could improve costs and help the bottom line.
Supportive ifManagement says a certain percentage of job cuts is done.
Worry ifNo progress reported on workforce reductions or an increase in workforce size.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue goals from the PRM contract shows the project is going well.
Supportive ifRevenue from the PRM contract meets or beats expectations next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue from the PRM contract is lower than expected. This shows project delays.
Why it matters: Cutting costs would help financial results and make operations run better.
Supportive ifAnnual cost savings of $12 million from job cuts and restructuring are achieved.
Worry ifNo big cost savings from job cuts are reported next quarter.