Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Guardant Health, Inc. (GH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$153.43-8.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reduce free cash flow burn to $185-$195 million in 2026 | Free cash flow burn should shrink to $185-$195 million in 2026. | Under Pressure | FCF burn exceeds $200 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GH is a high-growth, loss-making healthcare business with elevated risk, rather than an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is still developing: management is delivering strong growth, but recent financial performance has been weak and the latest quarter missed.
The evidence tags expectations as justified, with low fragility, while GH trades at a sizable premium to peers. The valuation model has low confidence and points to optionality, meaning some value depends on future opportunities; the negative expectations gap suggests the market may be assuming more than the near-term fundamentals support.
Near term, revenue growth has been strong and management raised its 2026 growth guidance, while gross margins have stayed above the stated full-year range. Free cash flow remains negative, improvement is limited, and the recent earnings miss adds execution risk despite the earlier earnings beat. A stronger healthcare-sector backdrop is supportive, but weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare names.
The multi-year thesis depends on GH sustaining its raised growth outlook while keeping margins steady and reducing cash burn. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility, while continued earnings strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GH has promising growth execution but remains a high-risk, loss-making story with weak recent results and a premium valuation. The thesis hinges on turning rapid growth into steadier execution and lower cash burn. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans to keep gross margin near 64% to 65%. |
| Intact |
| gross margin falls below 62% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Guardant Health continues to expect full year 2026 non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 64% to 65%.” “Non-GAAP gross margin was 67% for the second quarter of 2026, as compared to 66% for the corresponding prior year period.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve 32% to 34% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Guardant Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 32% to 34% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 30% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 44.33% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 32% to 34% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 202644.332322 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Guidance Guardant Health now expects full year 2026 revenue to be in the range of $1.34 to $1.36 billion, representing growth of 36% to 38% compared to full year 2025.” “This compares to the prior range of $1.30 to $1.32 billion, representing growth of 32% to 34%.” Revenue was $334.978 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.88 → $-2.12 · observed estimates
$1.73B → $1.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.88 | $1,727,610,529 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.88 | $1,727,610,529 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.43 | $1,715,362,060 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.88 | $1,727,610,529 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.88 | $1,727,610,529 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.43 | $1,715,362,060 | 18 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.88 | $1,727,614,877 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.40 | $1,715,362,060 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.88 | $1,732,097,703 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.44 | $1,800,870,890 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.44 | $1,800,870,890 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.44 | $1,800,870,890 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.45 | $1,813,615,440 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.45 | $1,813,615,440 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.96 | $1,794,955,167 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.45 | $1,828,707,100 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.45 | $1,828,707,100 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.45 | $1,828,707,100 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.45 | $1,828,707,100 | 18 / 24 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.96 | $1,794,955,167 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.96 | $1,794,955,167 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.96 | $1,794,955,167 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.96 | $1,794,955,167 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.96 | $1,794,955,167 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.96 | $1,794,955,167 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.96 | $1,794,955,167 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.93 | $1,831,253,564 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.93 | $1,831,253,564 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.93 | $1,831,253,564 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.93 | $1,831,253,564 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.93 | $1,831,253,564 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.93 | $1,831,174,668 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.93 | $1,831,192,059 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.93 | $1,831,192,059 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.93 | $1,831,192,059 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.93 | $1,831,192,059 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.93 | $1,831,185,551 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.93 | $1,831,185,551 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.93 | $1,831,185,551 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.93 | $1,831,185,551 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.93 | $1,834,446,268 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.93 | $1,834,446,268 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.93 | $1,834,446,268 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.93 | $1,834,446,268 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.93 | $1,834,446,268 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.93 | $1,834,446,268 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.91 | $1,837,102,175 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.91 | $1,837,960,351 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.91 | $1,838,486,339 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.91 | $1,838,479,735 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.91 | $1,838,479,735 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.91 | $1,838,479,735 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.91 | $1,838,479,735 | 13 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.91 | $1,837,666,390 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.91 | $1,837,666,390 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.93 | $1,835,270,557 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.03 | $1,835,270,557 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.03 | $1,835,270,557 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.03 | $1,835,270,557 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.03 | $1,833,270,557 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.03 | $1,833,270,557 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.03 | $1,832,957,545 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.03 | $1,832,957,545 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.04 | $1,835,205,935 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.04 | $1,835,205,935 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.04 | $1,835,205,935 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.04 | $1,835,786,813 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.03 | $1,837,566,908 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.03 | $1,837,566,908 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.13 | $1,837,565,231 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.13 | $1,837,565,231 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.13 | $1,837,565,231 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.13 | $1,837,565,231 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.13 | $1,837,565,606 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.13 | $1,837,556,898 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.13 | $1,837,556,898 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.13 | $1,838,984,188 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.12 | $1,838,109,847 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.12 | $1,838,116,726 | 13 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.