Guardant Health, Inc. (GH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$168.58-3.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 46.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GH — CEO transition
Dated 2026-11-03
Director — Kevin R. Sayer: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a routine governance action and not the departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: The company raised its cash burn range as it invests in lab capacity. Cash burn remains a key test while it loses money.
Worry ifManagement raises its 2026 free cash flow burn range above $205 million. Or reported full-year burn exceeds $205 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow burn is $205 million or less, within the stated range.
Why it matters: Guardant raised its 2026 revenue range twice. Q3 results will test whether that growth pace holds.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is at least $335 million, and management keeps its $1.34 billion to $1.36 billion 2026 range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $301.7 million, or management cuts the 2026 range below $1.34 billion.
Why it matters: Shield volume rose to 66,000 tests in Q2 from 16,000 a year earlier. More growth would support the higher 2026 screening plan.
Supportive ifQ3 Shield volume is at least 60,000 tests, keeping the company on pace for its 2026 goal of 270,000 to 285,000 tests.
Worry ifQ3 Shield volume is below 44,000 tests, the Q1 level, or the 2026 test goal is cut below 270,000.
Why it matters: Oncology made up $219.1 million of Q2 revenue. More tests drove much of its growth.
Supportive ifQ3 oncology test volume rises from last year. Management keeps its goal of about 50% volume growth for 2026.
Worry ifQ3 oncology test volume falls year over year, or management cuts its 2026 volume growth goal below 50%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $460 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,298 loss on $10,000 · 33.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management kept its 2026 margin goal at 64% to 65%. A lower Q3 result could put that goal at risk.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is below 64%, or management cuts its 2026 goal below 64%.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is at least 64%, and management keeps its 2026 goal at 64% to 65%.