Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Graham Holdings (GHC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1217.86-1.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
67.00 → 67.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GHC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS performance and growth | A primary condition in Graham Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $69 for FY26. | Intact | EPS falls below $69 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $17.60 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $69 for FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202617.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GHC is a diversified, growth-sensitive business with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, though earnings quality is fragile and results remain uneven across divisions.
The valuation is classified as cheap, but GHC trades at a premium to peers. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the business setup, with a small negative expectations gap; the evidence does not show a large expectations mismatch.
Near-term results show momentum: third-quarter revenue rose 4% year over year, and operating income increased. Revenue growth is on track, but operating income progress is mixed across divisions, and education revenue declined. The near-term miss risk is low, though the evidence notes a history of a deep miss and a high-miss-rate industry.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and better operating results across divisions. Near-term sector support could continue if bellwether MATW keeps beating earnings and raising guidance, while weaker MATW results could remove that tailwind. A material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.1%, such as below 2%, would also pressure this growth-sensitive sector.
GHC’s long-term thesis remains intact, with strong recent consolidated results offset by fragile earnings quality and mixed divisional execution. The 1-3 year view hinges on whether growth and operating performance become more consistent as sector conditions evolve. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins remain stable with solid free cash flow. |
| Broken |
| Free cash flow yield falls below 6% |
Free cash flow yield: 4.56% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20264.56 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth across education, broadcasting, healthcare, and manufacturing | Management is on track to increase revenue across divisions. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 3.69% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 20263.68907 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$67.00 → $67.50 · observed estimates
$5.42B → $5.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $67.00 | $5,415,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $67.50 | $5,424,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.