Graham Holdings (GHC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1135.89+1.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GHC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-25
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Graham Holdings Company issued a press release announcing the Company’s earnings for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished with this report as an exhibit to this Form 8-K.
Why it matters: A decline shows worse financial health. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifAdjusted operating cash flow is over $119.8 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted operating cash flow drops below $119.8 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Healthcare revenue increased significantly. Trends in cash flow will show if this growth is sustainable.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating cash flow in healthcare grows year over year, above 22%.
Worry ifAdjusted operating cash flow in healthcare declines year over year, worse than 22%.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports ongoing operations and investments. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating cash flow exceeds $120 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted operating cash flow falls below $100 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Good results from this acquisition could greatly increase healthcare revenue.
Supportive ifHealthcare revenue increases by more than 20% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifHealthcare revenue growth is less than 20% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,978 loss on $10,000 · 19.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Education revenue has gone down recently. Fixing it is important for growth.
Supportive ifEducation revenue shows no decline or grows year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEducation revenue declines year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or lower debt means better management and less risk. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifTotal debt remains stable or decreases compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifTotal debt is much higher than in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: This sale affects Kaplan's plans. It may change future education revenue.
Watch forThe sale of Dublin Business School to China Chunlai Education Group is done.
Also watch forThe sale does not complete by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Slower growth in operating income may show problems with managing costs.
Worry ifOperating income growth falls below 15% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth stays above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: If growth exceeds this rate, it shows strong momentum. This supports management's focus on making more money.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends are key to understanding the company's performance. A drop could signal a change in the growth phase.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below the median growth rate for the past two years.
Less concerning ifQuarterly revenue growth remains above the median growth rate.
Why it matters: A rise in education revenue would show a recovery after recent drops. This could help the company's growth.
Supportive ifEducation revenue increases year over year by more than 4% in Q3.
Worry ifEducation revenue declines year over year by more than 4% in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong growth in healthcare is key for the company. It helps management's growth plans.
Supportive ifHealthcare division revenue grew more than 20% compared to last year.
Worry ifHealthcare division revenue grew less than 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Automotive revenue is very important. If it stabilizes or drops, there may be problems.
Worry ifAutomotive revenue is stable or growing each year.
Less concerning ifAutomotive revenue keeps dropping each year.
Why it matters: Ongoing repurchases show management's confidence. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifThe company repurchases more than 50,000 shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3 2026.