Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Globe Life (GL)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$161.72+2.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.50 → 16.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaches at least $15.40 in FY26 | A primary condition in Globe Life's published investment case. The stated target is >=15.40 USD per share. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $15.40 for FY26 | Diluted EPS: $4.62 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=15.40 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20264.62 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GL is a life and health insurer with a moderately risky, relatively steady business profile rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation is tagged as cheap, while the model indicates GL trades at a 1.57 premium versus peers, with a durable premium as the stated reason for that gap. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not fully supported by the evidence; pricing fragility is low.
Near term, premium revenue grew 7% year over year in Q3, with health net sales up 32% but life net sales down 1%; earnings per share rose only modestly from the prior-year quarter. Management has delivered on share repurchases so far, but the next earnings report merits attention given consecutive misses and an elevated miss risk.
The multi-year view depends on whether growth in health premiums can continue while life sales stabilize and earnings guidance remains credible. Near term, another guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility, while sustained strength from sector peers could support the broader financial-sector backdrop; a shift to Fed rate cuts is a stated risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued premium growth and disciplined capital allocation, with recent misses and uneven product results as key checks. The business case remains intact, but execution and guidance credibility matter. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Life insurance net sales rose 6% in Q1, showing steady demand. |
| Improving |
| Life and health net sales growth falls below 6% YoY |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Management believes this information helps provide a better understanding of the business and a more meaningful analysis of underwriting results by distribution channel.” “Insurance underwriting income, a non-GAAP measure, is a component of net operating income, which is reconciled to net income in the Results of Operations section above.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Repurchase at least 1.4 million shares per quarter | The company actively buys back shares, repurchasing 1.4 million in Q1. | Intact | Share repurchases fall below 1.4 million shares per quarter | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company expects to spend $725 million to $775 million to repurchase common stock for the full year 2026, compared to the previous guidance of $670 million to $700 million.” “LIQUIDITY/CAPITAL: Globe Life's operations consist primarily of writing basic protection life and supplemental health insurance policies which generate strong and stable cash flows.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
PE ratio remains below peer median of 16.55 | Profit margins remain stable with a low valuation compared to peers. | Intact | PE ratio rises above 16.55 and stays elevated | P/E (TTM): 10.59x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202610.5907 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$16.56 → $16.40 · observed estimates
$6.81B → $6.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $16.56 | $6,813,060,940 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $16.56 | $6,813,060,940 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $16.58 | $6,821,532,870 | 10 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $16.55 | $6,820,245,610 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.55 | $6,820,245,610 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.55 | $6,820,245,610 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.52 | $6,804,026,460 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $16.52 | $6,804,026,460 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $16.49 | $6,819,374,005 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $16.52 | $6,804,026,460 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.52 | $6,804,026,460 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $16.52 | $6,804,026,460 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $16.52 | $6,804,026,460 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $16.49 | $6,819,374,005 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.49 | $6,807,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.52 | $6,804,026,460 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.52 | $6,804,026,460 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.49 | $6,807,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.49 | $6,807,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $16.52 | $6,804,026,460 | 11 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $16.49 | $6,807,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $16.49 | $6,807,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $16.49 | $6,807,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $16.49 | $6,807,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $16.49 | $6,807,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $16.49 | $6,807,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.50 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.49 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.49 | $6,816,603,006 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.48 | $6,801,436,339 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.48 | $6,801,436,339 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.48 | $6,801,436,339 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.48 | $6,801,436,339 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.48 | $6,801,436,339 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.50 | $6,807,224,375 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.50 | $6,807,229,025 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.50 | $6,807,229,025 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.51 | $6,808,647,335 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.51 | $6,808,647,335 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.51 | $6,808,647,335 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.51 | $6,808,647,335 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.51 | $6,808,647,335 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.51 | $6,808,681,718 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.51 | $6,817,723,200 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.49 | $6,817,723,200 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.46 | $6,798,117,952 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.46 | $6,798,117,952 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.46 | $6,798,117,952 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.46 | $6,798,117,952 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.43 | $6,805,142,410 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.40 | $6,799,142,410 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.40 | $6,799,142,410 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.40 | $6,799,142,410 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.40 | $6,799,142,410 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.40 | $6,799,142,410 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.40 | $6,799,142,410 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.40 | $6,799,142,410 | 7 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.