Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
GameStop (GME)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.17-3.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.86 → 1.54 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GME yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA exceeds $600 million in fiscal 2026 | The company expects adjusted EBITDA over $600 million in fiscal 2026, nearly double last year. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA falls below $500 million in fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GME is a volatile business-improvement story, with recent strength in operating results rather than a steady, low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased to medium and management execution remains uneven.
GME is valued at a sizable premium to peers, while the evidence labels its priced-in expectations unjustified. The expectations gap is meaningful, but the snapshot does not show that fragility is broadly concentrated beyond valuation.
Near term, cost reductions and higher operating income support the business, while collectibles have become a larger part of sales. Total quarterly sales were lower than a year earlier, and the full-year adjusted EBITDA goal remains unproven. Earnings surprises have been erratic, so guidance and execution remain important risks.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on management delivering its raised adjusted EBITDA outlook and sustaining cost discipline as collectibles grow. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength among major consumer-discretionary companies could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results could remove that support.
For a 1-to-3-year view, GME has real operating progress but also high risk, an expensive peer valuation, and an important execution test ahead. The thesis is intact, not settled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It is focused on acquiring eBay at $125 per share, which could boost growth. |
| Intact |
| acquisition proposal withdrawn or materially delayed beyond 2027-Q1 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve cash from operating activities | A supporting condition in GameStop's published investment case. The stated target is sustain or grow operating cash flow above $337 million. | Intact | operating cash flow falls below $300 million next year | Cash from operations: $62.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: sustain or grow operating cash flow above $337 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 9, 202662,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement $2.0 billion share repurchase authorization | The board approved a $2 billion share buyback, showing capital return commitment. | Improving | no buybacks executed by end of 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.37 → $1.54 · observed estimates
$4.12B → $3.93B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.37 | $4,116,292,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.86 | $4,331,274,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.54 | $3,930,137,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.54 | $3,930,137,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.