GameStop (GME)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.16-0.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GME
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers
GME — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-31
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement As previously disclosed, on August 2, 2026, GameStop Corp. (the “Company”) entered into (i) privately negotiated exchange agreements (the “2030 Notes Exchange Agreements”) with a limited number of existing holders (the “2030 Existing Noteholders”) of its 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”), and (ii) privately negotiated exchange agreements (the “2032 Notes Exchange Agreements” and, together with the 2030 Notes Exchange Agreemen…
Why it matters: The purchase could change GameStop's business model and growth. Investors will watch for updates.
Supportive ifManagement shares news on talks or gets needed approvals for the buy.
Worry ifManagement reports problems or delays in the buying process.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well GameStop is doing compared to last year. Investors will look for signs of recovery or further decline.
Watch forNet sales were between $780 million and $800 million. This is a smaller drop than expected.
Also watch forNet sales were below $780 million. This shows a bigger drop than expected.
Why it matters: This exchange will lower GameStop's long-term debt. It will help its finances. It shows that management cares about capital structure.
Supportive ifThe exchange closes on or before September 23, 2026, with all conditions met.
Worry ifThe exchange does not close by the expected date or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: Cohen's focus could lead to better results and clearer plans for GameStop.
Supportive ifCohen will discuss how the company is doing in future messages.
Worry ifCohen shifts focus to other projects or does not solve operational problems.
Why it matters: The CEO Performance Award changes how management works. It helps them follow the company strategy.
Watch forGameStop shares a new plan for the CEO Performance Award that fits with the eBay deal.
Also watch forGameStop decides to remove the CEO Performance Award. This is a big change for the company.
Why it matters: The purchase could greatly affect GameStop's growth and market position. It shows what management values.
Watch forGameStop announces a final agreement or big progress in talks with eBay.
Also watch forGameStop pulls back its proposal or does not get needed approvals.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show how GameStop is doing financially and its growth path.
Watch forQ2 earnings show net income growth exceeding 10% year-over-year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows net income decline year-over-year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show GameStop's financial health. They will show progress toward its EBITDA goal.
Watch forGameStop shows Q2 adjusted EBITDA over $150 million. This means strong performance.
Also watch forGameStop shows Q2 adjusted EBITDA under $100 million. This raises concerns about growth.
Why it matters: Updates on the $2.0 billion share buyback could show management's trust in the stock.
Supportive ifGameStop announces it has finished a big part of the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo share buybacks happen, or management gives bad news about the program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $337 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,546 loss on $10,000 · 35.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.