Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.71-2.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.93 → 0.93 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GNE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $32.5M to $40M in 2026 | Genie Energy aims for adjusted EBITDA of $32.5M to $40M in 2026. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $32.5 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are maintaining our full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $32.5 to $40 million.” “As a result, we are lowering full year 2026 guidance from $40 to $50 million, to $32.5 to $40 million in Adjusted EBITDA.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap utility business with a fragile earnings profile, rather than a clearly established compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: the latest signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to GNE being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is modest and the overall priced-in assessment is justified. This suggests the market is not layering unusually high expectations onto the business, though the low fragility rating does not remove its execution risks.
Near term, results may remain uneven: GNE reported an earnings beat in August after a miss in May, and the miss-risk assessment is quiet despite erratic surprises. Management reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance after lowering it earlier, but quarterly EBITDA improved while operating cash flow stayed negative, leaving delivery mixed.
The key company-specific test is whether GNE can meet its 2026 guidance and improve cash generation across its businesses; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Lower interest rates and continued strong results from large utility peers could support the sector backdrop, while the evidence on these outside factors is conditional rather than certain.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GNE’s thesis depends on turning a recent improvement in results into steadier earnings and positive cash generation. The valuation looks cheap versus peers, but the business evidence remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share | The company keeps paying a $0.075 dividend per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.075 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.075 per share per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.075 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve cash from operating activities above negative $6.5M | It works to improve cash from operations despite recent drops. | Improving | cash from operations falls below -$6.5 million | Cash from operations: $-3.417M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > -$6.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-3,417,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.91 → $0.93 · observed estimates
$0.49B → $0.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.91 | $491,270,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.93 | $486,190,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.