Genie Energy Ltd. (GNE)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.51+1.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Genie Energy aims for adjusted EBITDA of $32.5M to $40M in 2026. The company keeps paying a $0.075 dividend per share. It works to improve cash from operations despite recent drops. These show efforts to stabilize and grow.
Genie Energy cut its 2026 EBITDA guidance, showing growth problems. Cash from operations fell sharply to negative $6.5M in early 2026. The company missed earnings several times recently. These signs show weak financial health.
The price is about 6% above our fair value near $13. Analysts expect about 2% revenue decline. Our view sees risks from lowered guidance and cash flow issues.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $32.5 million in FY26
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.075 in any quarter
cash from operations falls below -$6.5 million
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a potential turnaround in a utility company facing sector headwinds. The current thesis state is cautious, given mixed recent performance and the need for improved cash generation.
The market has priced in a cheap valuation relative to peers, reflecting low expectations for execution quality. However, the current fragility in earnings quality suggests that the stock is not fully accounting for the potential risks in the sector.
Management is focused on maintaining a consistent dividend and achieving adjusted EBITDA guidance, though recent results show mixed progress. The near-term risk is moderate, with a low probability of missing earnings expectations, but the company has a history of erratic earnings surprises.
Key factors for GNE's future include the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the performance of sector leaders like NEE, SO, and DUK. Any guidance cuts from management could negatively impact sentiment and expectations.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company reaffirmed its guidance, which supports a positive outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operating activities to support financial stability.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GNE's performance will depend on management's ability to execute on their priorities amid a challenging sector. Not investment advice.