Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.11+0.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GNL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA within 6.5x to 6.9x | A primary condition in Global Net Lease, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 6.5x to 6.9x Net Debt/EBITDA. | Intact | Net Debt to EBITDA remains above 7.0x at FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GNL is a real estate recovery and asset-mix improvement story, not a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent momentum improving, but earnings quality remains weak and management execution is mixed.
The evidence points to GNL being cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, so the market appears to allow for meaningful execution risk. The priced-in fragility reading is low, but valuation evidence does not remove the risks tied to losses and management volatility.
Near term, performance is rated neutral, and the estimated miss risk is quiet, though recent earnings surprises have been erratic. Over the multi-year view, office dispositions and lower net debt relative to earnings could improve the portfolio and balance sheet if management completes its plans; recent revenue has also declined between the reported quarters.
The thesis depends on completing office sales and shifting the portfolio toward industrial and retail assets while maintaining disciplined debt reduction. A guidance cut after the recent increase would hurt management credibility, while Fed rate cuts could support real estate; weakness among sector peers could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, GNL has an intact but execution-sensitive long-term thesis, with progress on debt and office exposure offset by losses and uneven results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The Modiv acquisition adds $535 million in industrial assets and boosts earnings by 4%. |
| Recovered |
| Modiv acquisition fails to close by Q3 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Consistent with that approach, we completed the acquisition of an approximately 100,000-square-foot single-tenant industrial property in Mississippi leased to Federal Express for approximately $14 million at an 8.2% going-in cash cap rate.” “Upon closing, the transaction is expected to extend our portfolio weighted average lease term to 6.6 years and increase our industrial exposure to account for approximately 50% of total straight-line rent, further improving the overall quality and resilience of our real estate portfolio.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Reduce office asset exposure to ~21% | Global Net Lease is reducing office exposure from 26% to about 21%. | Intact | office exposure remains above 23% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Consistent with that approach, we completed the acquisition of an approximately 100,000-square-foot single-tenant industrial property in Mississippi leased to Federal Express for approximately $14 million at an 8.2% going-in cash cap rate.” “Upon closing, the transaction is expected to extend our portfolio weighted average lease term to 6.6 years and increase our industrial exposure to account for approximately 50% of total straight-line rent, further improving the overall quality and resilience of our real estate portfolio.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Repurchase 19.7 million shares at average price ~$8.05 | Management repurchased 19.7 million shares at an average price of $8.05. | Intact | repurchases fall below 15 million shares by Q4 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.06 → $-0.04 · observed estimates
$0.48B → $0.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.06 | $480,153,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.10 | $472,358,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.10 | $472,358,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.11 | $466,230,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.10 | $472,358,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.10 | $472,358,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.10 | $472,358,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.10 | $472,358,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.11 | $466,230,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.11 | $466,230,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.10 | $472,358,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.10 | $472,358,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.10 | $472,358,200 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.11 | $466,230,000 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.11 | $467,901,429 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.10 | $471,892,000 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.10 | $471,892,000 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.10 | $471,892,000 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.11 | $467,901,429 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.11 | $467,901,429 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.11 | $467,901,429 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.11 | $467,901,429 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.11 | $467,901,429 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.11 | $467,901,429 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.11 | $467,901,429 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.11 | $467,901,429 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.03 | $471,384,625 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.03 | $470,584,429 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.03 | $470,584,429 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.03 | $470,584,429 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.03 | $470,584,429 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.03 | $470,584,429 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.03 | $470,584,429 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.03 | $470,584,429 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.04 | $472,333,714 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.04 | $472,333,714 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.04 | $472,333,714 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.04 | $472,333,714 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.04 | $472,333,714 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.04 | $472,333,714 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.04 | $472,333,714 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.04 | $473,633,125 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.04 | $473,633,125 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.04 | $473,917,000 | 2 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.