Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.11+0.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GNL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GNL — litigation filed
Dated 2026-11-05
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. The statements in this Current Report on Form 8-K that are not historical facts may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve risks and unc…
Why it matters: The results and call can show whether recent gains continued. Watch for AFFO per share, debt, and office sales.
Watch forQ3 results show AFFO per share above Q2. Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA is at or below 6.6x, and more office sales have closed.
Also watch forQ3 results show AFFO per share below Q2, debt above 6.9x, or no further office sales closed.
Why it matters: GNL reported lower debt and a lower debt ratio in Q2. Staying within its stated range would show that progress continued.
Supportive ifA later report shows net debt to Adjusted EBITDA at 6.9x or lower and gross debt at or below $2.5 billion.
Worry ifA later report shows net debt to Adjusted EBITDA above 6.9x or gross debt above $2.5 billion.
Why it matters: GNL declared a $0.190 common dividend for Q4. A later cut would signal pressure on cash available for payments.
Worry ifA later dividend notice declares a common dividend of at least $0.190 per share.
Less concerning ifA later dividend notice lists less than $0.190 per share or pauses the common dividend.
Why it matters: Selling office assets would lower GNL's office share. The stated goal is a fall from about 26% to about 21% of rent.
Supportive ifA new filing reports more office sales closed, and office assets make up 21% or less of straight-line rent.
Worry ifOffice assets remain near 26% of straight-line rent, or planned sales are delayed or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$66 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $213 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,914 loss on $10,000 · 29.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: GNL completed the Modiv deal on August 13. Reported AFFO per share can show whether the deal adds to earnings.
Supportive ifA later earnings report shows AFFO per share above its pre-deal level. Management links part of the gain to Modiv.
Worry ifAFFO per share falls below the pre-deal level, or management says Modiv did not add to per-share results.