Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.12-0.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GNL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GNL — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-08-13
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and
Why it matters: Recent legal issues could hurt GNL's operations and finances. It is important to watch for updates.
Worry ifLegal results are good and do not cause major problems.
Less concerning ifLegal results cause problems or money penalties.
Why it matters: Issuing these units is crucial for capital allocation. It signals financial health and commitment.
Supportive ifA formal announcement says the 4,914,532 OP Units have been issued.
Worry ifFailure to issue the OP Units as planned.
Why it matters: Reducing office holdings is important for GNL. A successful cut will improve the portfolio.
Supportive ifOffice holdings drop to 21% of total rent after planned sales.
Worry ifOffice holdings stay above 26% after planned sales.
Why it matters: Selling this office property will reduce GNL's office exposure and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifThe sale closes for $13 million as expected in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe sale does not close or is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,225 loss on $10,000 · 12.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Future dividends will indicate GNL's cash flow health and commitment to returning value to shareholders. Changes could affect sentiment.
Watch forAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.190 per share.
Also watch forAnnouncement of a dividend cut or no increase.
Why it matters: Starting share buybacks shows that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least $20 million in share repurchases within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The merger agreement is key for growth. Positive updates could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifA press release says the merger is on track or has regulatory approval.
Worry ifNews of delays or complications in the merger process.
Why it matters: Maintaining dividends signals financial health. Cuts could worry investors about cash flow.
Worry ifAn announcement says the dividend will stay the same or go up.
Less concerning ifA cut or suspension of the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Reducing office exposure is a priority for GNL. More sales could improve portfolio quality and reduce risk.
Supportive ifGNL announces more office asset sales. This will lower office exposure to below 21% of portfolio rent.
Worry ifNo new office asset sales are announced. This keeps office exposure above 26%.
Why it matters: Completing the merger would show GNL's commitment to growth through M&A. This could positively impact its market position.
Supportive ifAn official announcement says the merger is done and working.
Worry ifThe merger agreement is canceled or delayed past the expected time.
Why it matters: The Modiv acquisition may change the company's assets and growth path. Progress or delays will affect investor feelings.
Supportive ifThe Modiv acquisition is done. This raises industrial exposure to 50%.
Worry ifThere are delays or the Modiv acquisition is not completed.
Why it matters: Cutting office space is very important. Better sales can help cash flow and portfolio.
Supportive ifThey plan to finish selling at least $263 million in office assets.
Worry ifFailure to complete the planned office asset dispositions by the end of the year.
Why it matters: GNL has a $263 million sales pipeline. Progress shows good use of capital.
Supportive ifAt least $100 million of the sales pipeline is done in the next quarter.
Worry ifLess than $100 million of the disposition pipeline is completed in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if GNL's strategies are working. This is important after the recent earnings miss.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $0.21. This shows better performance and good capital recycling.
Also watch forEarnings per share is below $0.21. This signals ongoing problems in managing the portfolio.
Why it matters: Court case results could change how well the company performs and how investors feel.
Worry ifGood court case results with no financial penalties.
Less concerning ifBad court case results leading to big financial penalties.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders. Changes may impact investor feelings.
Watch forDividend per share remains at $0.19 or increases in the next earnings report.
Also watch forDividend per share decreases or is suspended in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: A rise in AFFO guidance shows strong operations and good financial health.
Supportive ifManagement confirms AFFO per share guidance of $0.82 to $0.85 in future talks.
Worry ifManagement lowers AFFO guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: This ratio shows how GNL manages its debt. A lower number means better financial health.
Supportive ifNet Debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio will drop below 6.5x in the next report.
Worry ifNet Debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio will rise above 6.9x in the next report.
Why it matters: This reflects GNL's strategy to reduce office exposure and strengthen its portfolio. Progress here is crucial.
Supportive ifTotal closed and pending sales reach $263 million. 78% comes from office sales.
Worry ifTotal dispositions fall short of $263 million or office sales do not represent 78% of the total.
Why it matters: The Modiv acquisition is expected to be 4% accretive to AFFO per share. This could strengthen GNL's earnings profile.
Supportive ifAFFO per share increases by at least 4% in the next earnings report after the acquisition.
Worry ifAFFO per share does not increase or declines in the next earnings report.