Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-09-30 · fmp
Genasys Inc (GNSS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.31-7.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GNSS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Secure financial stability through capital allocation | The company secured a $4.3M loan to improve financial stability. | Intact | Debt or liquidity issues worsen, threatening solvency or operations | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 15, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business rather than an established compounder, given its losses, high risk, and volatile management record. Its multi-year thesis is in a watch state: company momentum has improved, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed and low confidence: one measure places GNSS cheap versus peers, while another shows a 27% premium. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not fully aligned with the evidence, but the snapshot does not say exactly what the market assumes.
Near term, the October preliminary update supports progress toward fiscal 2026 revenue and gross-margin goals, but quarterly revenue fell from Q2 to Q3 and the full-year revenue range does not confirm a record. Gross margin stayed above the stated 50% goal, while software growth remains hard to assess because separate revenue figures were not provided. Consecutive earnings misses and a 40% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk.
The multi-year view hinges on turning software adoption into measurable sales and sustaining progress on revenue and margins. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GNSS has a possible growth case but limited proof of consistent execution, with losses and earnings reliability weighing on the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets gross margins over 50%. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 50% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 57.09% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin >= 50% for FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202657.0939 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve record revenue and net income profitability in 2026 | Genasys aims for record revenue and profit in 2026. | Broken | Revenue or net income falls below prior year levels or remains negative for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “A conference call to discuss the fiscal year financial results will be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m.” “For more information regarding potential risks and uncertainties, see the “Risk Factors” section of the Company’s Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.10 → $0.05 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.14 | $67,666,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.14 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.14 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.10 | $67,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.06 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.14 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.14 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.06 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.06 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.14 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.06 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.06 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.06 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.06 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.06 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.06 | $63,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.04 | $62,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.04 | $62,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.04 | $62,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.04 | $62,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.04 | $62,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.04 | $62,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.04 | $62,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.04 | $62,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.04 | $62,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.05 | $64,366,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.