Genasys Inc (GNSS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.45+1.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GNSS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -68.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GNSS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless o…
Why it matters: New plans could help keep finances stable. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifA new plan for using money or a loan agreement is announced.
Worry ifNo new plans for using money are announced.
Why it matters: Completing this order is important for making more money. It also shows how well the company operates.
Supportive ifCROWS II order is completed and revenue is recognized in Q4.
Worry ifFurther delays in the CROWS II order lead to missed revenue expectations.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Genasys is doing financially. This is key for understanding its growth.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above the previous quarter and improved margins.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows falling revenue or worse financial results.
Why it matters: This loan helps with financial stability. How it is used will affect future spending.
Watch forManagement says they are using the $4.3M loan well to improve operations.
Also watch forManagement says they are having trouble using the loan well.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $574 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,535 loss on $10,000 · 45.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New contracts show growth in the software area, helping overall revenue goals.
Supportive ifAt least two new municipal contracts for the Protect platform are secured in Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo new software contracts are announced in Q4 2026, indicating slower growth.
Why it matters: A drop below $15M would show the company is struggling to achieve record revenue in 2026.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $15M.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported above $15M.
Why it matters: New contracts show strong demand. They support revenue growth expectations.
Supportive ifNew contracts worth over $2 million would boost growth momentum.
Worry ifNo new contracts mean a slowdown in demand or competitive issues.
Why it matters: An increase in backlog would signal strong demand and future revenue potential.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $75 million. This shows strong order flow and high demand.
Worry ifBacklog falls below $60 million. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: This loan could impact Genasys' financial health and growth plans. Investors will want to see how the company uses this capital.
Watch forGenasys will share a press release. It will explain how they will use the loan money.
Also watch forNo clear communication on the loan's use or negative implications for cash flow.
Why it matters: Timely payments help cash flow and project work, which affects financial health.
Supportive ifAll pending payments for the Puerto Rico EWS project are received on schedule.
Worry ifFurther delays in payments from the Puerto Rico EWS project occur, straining cash flow.
Why it matters: Successful debt repayment will improve financial health and support growth.
Supportive ifMonthly payments of $1.0 million towards the term loan begin as planned.
Worry ifPayments are missed or delayed beyond October 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping margins over 50% shows good cost control and profit potential.
Supportive ifGross margins reported between 55% and 58% for Q3.
Worry ifGross margins fall below 55% in Q3.
Why it matters: New off-balance sheet debts may mean more financial risk for Genasys. This could lower investor trust.
Worry ifManagement will explain the off-balance sheet debts. They will discuss how it affects financial stability.
Less concerning ifThere are no updates or bad news about the off-balance sheet debts.
Why it matters: This revenue range matches what management said. It shows recovery from past issues.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within the range of $7.0 million to $7.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $7.0 million.
Why it matters: Timely payments from the Puerto Rico project are key for cash flow and stability.
Watch forPayments from the Puerto Rico project arrive on time. This helps with cash flow.
Also watch forPayments are delayed again. This shows there may be cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Going above this level shows a strong recovery from recent supply chain problems.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue was over $10 million. This shows strong demand and good backlog work.
Worry ifQ4 revenue was under $10 million. This suggests ongoing problems with demand or execution.
Why it matters: Keeping margins above this level shows good cost management and product mix.
Supportive ifGross margin was over 55% in Q4. This confirms good cost management.
Worry ifGross margin was below 55% in Q4. This shows possible issues with cost control or pricing.