Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Gogo, Inc. (GOGO)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.27-10.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.35 → 0.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GOGO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain customer retention despite competition from free Wi-Fi | A supporting condition in Gogo, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material loss of major airline contracts. | Intact | Significant loss of airline contracts or customer base | No material contract loss reported News shows T-Mobile free Wi-Fi uncertainty and Gogo legal win, but no reports of major airline contract cancellations. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth and execution story, not a low-risk compounder: the business is expanding next-generation services while working to reduce debt. The long-term thesis is intact, though the recent signal shifted from mixed to cautious after an earnings miss and a guidance reduction.
The valuation evidence is mixed: GOGO is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall priced-in tag is stretched. The expectations gap is modest, and the evidence does not show that the market is assuming flawless execution.
Near term, financial performance has been strong relative to its industry, but Q2 revenue edged down sequentially, operating income declined from Q1, and management lowered 2026 revenue and free cash flow guidance. Galileo equipment and 5G shipments increased in Q2, supporting the multi-year growth effort, while the recent miss and elevated risk leave execution uncertain.
The thesis depends on continued growth in Galileo and 5G revenue, progress against the revised guidance, and sustained debt reduction without further operating pressure. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from large communication-services peers would be supportive sector signals.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GOGO’s long-term thesis rests on turning higher next-generation product shipments into durable financial progress while managing debt and the risks of revised guidance. The thesis remains intact, but the evidence supports a cautious view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets positive free cash flow near $100 million in 2026. |
| Broken |
| Free cash flow falls below $90 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $-10.217M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $90 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-10,217,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves beyond $31.7M quarterly run-rate | Operating income improved to $31.7 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | Operating income falls below $31.7 million quarterly run-rate | Operating income: $29.65M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $31.7 million quarterly run-rate. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202629,650,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue reaches $905M to $945M in 2026 | A primary condition in Gogo, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $905 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $905 million in FY26 | Revenue: $222.811M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $905 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026222,811,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.51 → $0.35 · observed estimates
$0.95B → $0.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.80 | $950,708,060 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.80 | $950,708,060 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.80 | $950,708,060 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.80 | $950,708,060 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.80 | $950,708,060 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.80 | $950,708,060 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.80 | $950,708,060 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.80 | $950,708,060 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.32 | $930,634,730 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.32 | $930,634,730 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.32 | $930,634,730 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.62 | $930,634,730 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.62 | $930,634,730 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.51 | $950,708,028 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.35 | $930,634,728 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.35 | $915,327,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.35 | $921,077,078 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.