Gogo, Inc. (GOGO)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.84+7.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GOGO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GOGO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On August 6, 2026, Gogo Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: More payments show a focus on paying off debt. This helps financial stability.
Supportive ifDebt principal payments exceed $25 million in Q3.
Worry ifPayments are less than $10 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If Free Cash Flow guidance is confirmed, Gogo is handling its cash well.
Watch forFree Cash Flow in Q2 2026 aligns with the guidance of $90 million to $110 million.
Also watch forFree Cash Flow falls below $90 million, suggesting cash management issues.
Why it matters: This report will give important updates on revenue and profit trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows total revenue above $945 million.
Also watch forEarnings report shows total revenue below $905 million.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth signals progress on management's priority to grow sales. It shows the company is moving in the right direction.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Management's guidance will show if they can meet or exceed lowered expectations. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement raises Q3 revenue guidance to more than $222.8 million.
Less concerning ifManagement lowers Q3 revenue guidance to less than $222.8 million.
Why it matters: Operating income trends show how well the company is doing. Improvement means better cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 2026 is over $31.7 million.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 2026 falls below $31.7 million.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations indicates stronger financial health. It supports growth and investment.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by more than 15% compared to Q1.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases or stays the same compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A big drop in service revenue shows problems in the business aviation area.
Worry ifQ3 service revenue down year over year worse than -5%.
Less concerning ifService revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for Gogo's finances and reducing debt.
Supportive ifNet cash from operations becomes positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet cash from operations stays negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Gogo needs revenue growth to change and gain investor trust.
Supportive ifTotal revenue in Q2 2026 increases year over year compared to $226.3 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue declines year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Service revenue growth is crucial for Gogo's financial health. It shows demand for connectivity services.
Supportive ifService revenue in Q3 2026 increases year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifService revenue in Q3 2026 decreases year over year or remains flat.
Why it matters: Successful demos may get customers interested. This could lead to new services.
Supportive ifGogo shows off 5G capabilities in late October.
Worry ifDemos are delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: If earnings meet or exceed expectations, it can help rebuild investor trust after a recent miss.
Supportive ifThe Q2 earnings report shows results that meet or beat what analysts expected.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report did not meet analysts' expectations again.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how much money Gogo makes. Good results help increase operating income.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 is more than $53.3 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 is less than $53.3 million.
Why it matters: Net income trends will show Gogo's financial health and how well it operates.
Watch forNet income in Q2 2026 is over $13.1 million. This shows Gogo makes more money.
Also watch forNet income is below $13.1 million. This suggests Gogo faces ongoing financial issues.
Why it matters: Continued debt reduction is crucial for financial health. It impacts the company's ability to invest in growth.
Supportive ifGogo makes a debt principal payment of over $21 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo significant debt repayment occurs in Q3.
Why it matters: A big drop in equipment revenue may show problems with product demand or execution.
Worry ifQ3 equipment revenue down more than 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 equipment revenue remains stable or grows compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More shipments would show that Gogo's new product strategy is working.
Supportive ifGogo Galileo and 5G shipments increase by more than 25% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShipments for Gogo Galileo and 5G remain flat or decline in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher free cash flow shows better cash management and how well the company runs.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $30 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains below $30 million in Q3 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$257 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $707 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,658 loss on $10,000 · 76.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.