Gogo, Inc. (GOGO)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.53+5.42%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GOGO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
GOGO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On August 6, 2026, Gogo Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Business aviation service revenue fell 8% year over year in Q2. A drop that continues would add pressure to total service revenue.
Worry ifBusiness aviation service revenue falls more than 8% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifBusiness aviation service revenue is flat or higher year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Gogo is counting on these new products to grow revenue. Q2 shipments rose for both, but the full-year sales outlook was cut.
Supportive ifQ3 Galileo shipments exceed 108 units and 5G shipments exceed 138 units.
Worry ifQ3 Galileo shipments are 108 units or fewer, or 5G shipments are 138 units or fewer.
Why it matters: Gogo cut its 2026 revenue and cash flow ranges in Q2. Keeping or raising them would show the lower outlook has held.
Supportive ifOn November 6, Gogo keeps or raises its 2026 revenue range of $870 million to $895 million and free cash flow range of $65 million to $85 million.
Worry ifOn November 6, Gogo cuts either the revenue range below $870 million or free cash flow below $65 million.
Why it matters: Q2 free cash flow was $21.6 million, while the full-year range was cut to $65 million to $85 million. A lower Q3 result would make that range harder to reach.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow is below $21.6 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 free cash flow is $21.6 million or higher.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$280 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $715 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,705 loss on $10,000 · 77.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.