Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.45-4.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.19 → 0.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GOOD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt levels and maintain credit agreements | A supporting condition in Gladstone Commercial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material debt covenant breaches or credit downgrades. | Intact | material debt covenant breach or credit rating downgrade | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an income-oriented real estate business with a thesis tied to durable tenant relationships and steady cash flow. The current thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to assess it; the overall signal has recently improved to favorable.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure indicates GOOD is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.58 premium to peers, and the broader value assessment is expensive. The priced-in tag is justified, with low flagged fragility, but the expectations gap is negative at -0.14, suggesting expectations may be ahead of the evidence.
Near term, management has reported full cash-rent collection in recent quarters and leased or renewed about 966,000 square feet with eight tenants in 2026-Q2. Operating cash flow rose from $15.7 million in 2025-Q4 to $17.9 million in 2026-Q1, while capital recycling toward industrial properties remains a watch item. Miss risk is described as low, though a guidance cut or weakness among real estate peers could undermine the near-term setup.
Over the next year, Fed rate cuts from the current 3.88% could support rate-sensitive real estate, while continued rent collection and stable operating cash flow would support the multi-year thesis. The main adverse scenarios are a guidance cut on the next call or signs of weakness at sector peers such as VICI, WPC, and JAN.
The 1-to-3-year view is supported by steady rent collection and cash flow, but valuation looks expensive overall and the limited performance history makes the thesis hard to confirm. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The dividend yield is strong at 12%. |
| Intact |
| dividend yield falls below 10% or dividend cut announced |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 4% per year | A primary condition in Gladstone Commercial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Support tenants through economic challenges | It supports tenants through tough times. | Intact | management fails to support tenants leading to rising vacancies | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.21 → $0.17 · observed estimates
$0.18B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.17 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.17 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.17 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.17 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.17 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.17 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.17 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.17 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.17 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.17 | $175,226,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.17 | $175,226,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.17 | $175,226,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.15 | $175,895,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.15 | $175,895,600 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.21 | $175,620,400 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.19 | $175,733,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.17 | $174,741,200 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.