Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Gossamer Bio, Inc. (GOSS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.42-5.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GOSS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital with new convertible notes | New convertible notes help manage its capital. | Intact | Convertible notes fail to improve capital allocation | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GOSS is a high-risk, loss-making biotechnology company whose long-term thesis depends on drug development and future commercial progress. The thesis is currently intact, but confidence is medium and management execution has been volatile.
GOSS is valued at a premium to peers, with optionality, or the possibility of future value from uncertain opportunities, driving the gap between valuation and fundamentals. The evidence labels expectations as unjustified, while model confidence is low, so the market’s assumptions are difficult to assess precisely.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated after a run of misses, and a guidance cut would add pressure to execution. Management remains on track for a planned September 2026 regulatory filing for seralutinib in PAH, while debt restructuring extended maturities; however, collaboration revenue declined from the first to the second quarter of 2026.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on progress with the seralutinib filing, steadier execution, and whether collaboration revenue can recover. A guidance cut or a weaker jobs trend could worsen the backdrop, while strong results and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-3 year view, the development opportunity remains, but high risk, repeated earnings misses, and a premium valuation leave little evidence of dependable execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Gossamer Bio, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Submit NDA by September 2026. |
| Intact |
| NDA submission delayed beyond September 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We completed a productive Pre-NDA Type B meeting with the FDA, received the official minutes and remain on track to submit our NDA for seralutinib in PAH in September.” “• On that basis, the Company intends to submit an NDA supported by one adequate and well-controlled study (Phase 3 PROSERA) plus confirmatory evidence (Phase 2 TORREY and supportive analyses) in September 2026.” Revenue was $9.238 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stabilize or grow revenue | A primary condition in Gossamer Bio, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= -3% next year. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below -3% next year | Revenue growth: -19.59% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= -3% next year. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 13, 2026-19.592654 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Announce and execute share buyback program | The company started a share buyback program recently. | Under Pressure | No buyback program announced or executed by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.09 → $-10.52 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.09 | $52,996,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.09 | $52,996,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.09 | $52,996,170 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.09 | $52,996,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.09 | $52,996,170 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.09 | $53,279,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.17 | $25,262,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.17 | $25,262,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.17 | $25,262,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.17 | $25,262,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.17 | $25,262,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.17 | $25,262,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.17 | $25,262,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.17 | $25,262,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.17 | $25,262,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.16 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-12.41 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-12.41 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-10.68 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-10.68 | $20,045,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-10.72 | $19,997,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-10.72 | $19,995,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-10.72 | $19,995,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-10.72 | $19,995,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-10.72 | $19,995,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-10.72 | $19,995,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-10.50 | $19,995,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-10.50 | $19,995,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-10.50 | $19,995,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-10.50 | $19,995,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-10.52 | $16,748,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-10.52 | $16,726,856 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.