Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$266.50-2.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
43.87 → 38.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GPI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share | It raised its annual dividend to $2.20 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.55 per quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GPI is a cyclical dealership operator with a portfolio reshaping and operating-efficiency story. Recent financial performance remains strong relative to much of its industry, but management execution is volatile and the long-term thesis is not yet firmly established.
GPI is described as cheap versus peers, while the pricing evidence says expectations are not unusually fragile. That leaves room for the valuation gap to reflect real execution and earnings-quality concerns, rather than a clear mismatch between market expectations and the business setup.
Near term, another guidance cut would add to the concern raised by the latest earnings miss and the run of misses noted in the evidence. Management is completing dealership dispositions and reducing U.S. SG&A dollars, but revenue fell year over year and the adjusted expense ratio worsened, so the multi-year benefit from these actions remains uncertain.
The thesis depends on whether dealership acquisitions and dispositions improve the portfolio and reduce leverage, while operating efficiency improves; the supplied evidence does not establish progress on leverage. Near-term signals include the next guidance update and results from sector bellwethers: continued strong reports could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, GPI has a potentially supportive valuation and concrete portfolio actions, but fragile earnings quality, mixed execution, and near-term miss risk keep the long-term thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It raised its annual dividend to $2.20 per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $42.27 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 3% annually | A primary condition in Group 1 Automotive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount to peer median PE | A supporting condition in Group 1 Automotive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE ratio below 12. | Intact | PE ratio rises above 12 | P/E (TTM): 7.55x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20267.5529 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$46.21 → $38.57 · observed estimates
$23.35B → $22.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $46.21 | $23,347,457,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $46.21 | $23,347,457,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $46.29 | $23,441,076,540 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $46.29 | $23,441,076,540 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $46.21 | $23,347,457,083 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $46.29 | $23,441,076,540 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $46.29 | $23,441,076,540 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $46.29 | $23,441,076,540 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $46.08 | $23,427,716,771 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $45.58 | $23,655,700,580 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $45.58 | $23,655,700,580 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $45.49 | $23,735,243,490 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $44.28 | $23,661,682,660 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $44.28 | $23,661,682,660 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $44.28 | $23,661,682,660 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $44.28 | $23,661,682,660 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $45.39 | $23,505,510,704 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $43.94 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $43.99 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $43.99 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $43.99 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $43.99 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $43.99 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $43.99 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $43.99 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $43.99 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $43.99 | $23,522,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $43.87 | $23,495,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $43.87 | $23,495,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $43.87 | $23,495,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $43.87 | $23,495,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $43.87 | $23,495,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $43.87 | $23,495,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $43.87 | $23,495,484,137 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $42.86 | $23,451,645,826 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $42.27 | $23,449,536,655 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $41.74 | $23,412,542,081 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $41.74 | $23,412,542,081 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $41.74 | $23,412,542,081 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $41.22 | $23,399,722,081 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $41.22 | $23,399,722,081 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $41.14 | $23,353,322,081 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $41.14 | $23,353,322,081 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $41.14 | $23,353,322,081 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $40.43 | $23,100,830,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $40.43 | $23,100,830,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $40.31 | $23,068,860,903 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $39.90 | $22,866,961,157 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $38.86 | $22,822,661,369 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $38.86 | $22,822,658,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $38.86 | $22,822,658,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $38.86 | $22,822,658,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $38.57 | $22,704,958,239 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $38.57 | $22,704,958,239 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.