Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$300.76+5.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS at or above $42.27 in FY26: EPS $2.2 vs 42.27.
Group 1 Automotive pays a steady dividend of $0.55 per quarter. It raised its annual dividend to $2.20 per share. Analysts expect revenue growth of about 3% next year. The stock is cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.58, well below peers.
The company missed earnings recently and revenue fell 1.8% year-over-year. The stock has sold off 17% from its high. Growth is slow and the sector faces headwinds. Profit margins and execution could weaken further.
The market prices the stock about 37% below our fair value near $473. Analysts expect modest 3% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this cautious outlook but sees value if growth stabilizes.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.55 per quarter
Breaks if: EPS falls below $42.27 in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on strategic acquisitions and operational excellence. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance, but it faces challenges from management volatility and sector headwinds.
The market currently prices GPI as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors are not fully accounting for the company's recent strong performance and ongoing strategic initiatives.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, given the company's focus on cost actions and strategic portfolio optimization. However, there is a risk of earnings misses, as GPI has experienced consecutive misses in recent quarters.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on strategic priorities and the performance of key sector players. Additionally, macroeconomic factors like inflation and guidance changes could significantly impact GPI's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss indicates operational challenges amid soft consumer spending. The company is focusing on operational excellence and cost actions in the U.S. and U.K.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: PE ratio rises above 12
In the next 1 to 3 years, GPI's performance will depend on effective management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.