Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$300.76+5.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
GPI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. As provided in General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02 (including the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: Trends in U.K. gross profits will show if the company can maintain its growth momentum.
Supportive ifU.K. gross profits increase year over year, continuing the trend from Q1.
Worry ifU.K. gross profits decline year over year, indicating potential issues.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows good financial health. It shows that management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.55 per share on September 15, 2026.
Worry ifThe company suspends or reduces the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Updates on cost cuts will show how well the company is handling expenses.
Worry ifManagement says cost cuts are working. This leads to better profit margins.
Less concerning ifNo updates or failed cost cuts mean higher operational costs.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss. They will show how well cost-cutting and acquisition strategies are working.
Watch forQ3 earnings show a big improvement in net income compared to Q2 results.
Also watch forQ3 earnings continue to decline or miss expectations again.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $378 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,864 loss on $10,000 · 48.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Managing costs is key for making money. Success here can boost profits and trust from investors.
Supportive ifManagement says SG&A expenses are down by at least 100 bps of gross profit.
Worry ifSG&A expenses as a percentage of gross profit increases or remains above 70%.
Why it matters: An increase would show confidence in cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the annual dividend rate is raised to $2.20 per share.
Worry ifNo announcement of a dividend increase by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: A rise in SG&A expenses could mean worse operational efficiency. This metric helps understand cost management.
Worry ifSG&A as a % of gross profit remains below 67.5% in Q3.
Less concerning ifSG&A as a % of gross profit rises above 72.4% in Q3.
Why it matters: Good performance in UK operations can help with problems in the US market and support growth.
Supportive ifUK operations report record gross profits and revenue growth in Q2 2026.
Worry ifUK operations report declining gross profits and revenue in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will indicate if the earnings miss was a one-time issue or a sign of deeper problems.
Watch forQ3 total revenues show growth compared to Q2, reversing the recent decline.
Also watch forQ3 total revenues continue to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition would strengthen Group 1's position in the Atlanta market. It could boost revenues by $1.7 billion annually.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by the end of 2026. All regulatory approvals will be obtained.
Worry ifThe acquisition may not close or could face delays. This is due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Better earnings show good cost control. This matters during tough times.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted diluted earnings per share exceeds $9.61, the level from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted diluted earnings per share falls below $8.62, the level from Q2.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can drive growth. Successful deals may enhance revenue and market position.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of a new acquisition. It may bring in at least $50 million yearly.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions have been announced. There are no sales that lower revenue potential.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong use of capital and good returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend of at least $0.55 per share in Q3.
Worry ifThe Board cuts the dividend payout below $0.55 per share in Q3.