Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$266.50-2.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GPI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. As provided in General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02 (including the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: Management tied store sales to lower debt. Closing the signed deals would bring total sale proceeds to about $360 million.
Supportive ifGroup 1 closes the four signed U.S. store sales and reports proceeds near $125 million.
Worry ifAny of the four signed sales is canceled, or the reported proceeds fall below $125 million.
Why it matters: Group 1 has opened two of three planned U.K. Geely sites. Opening the last site would complete this step in its U.K. network plan.
Supportive ifGroup 1 confirms that the third planned U.K. Geely location opened by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifGroup 1 reports that the third Geely site did not open by December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: U.S. costs fell in dollars, but adjusted SG&A took a larger share of gross profit. A lower share would show that cost cuts are gaining ground.
Supportive ifA quarterly report shows adjusted U.S. SG&A below 71% of gross profit, versus 71.4% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted U.S. SG&A stays at or above 71.4% of gross profit in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: Same-store U.S. used-car units fell 8.5% in Q3. A smaller drop or growth would ease concern about weak sales volume.
Supportive ifSame-store U.S. used-car retail units are flat or higher year over year in a coming quarterly report.
Worry ifSame-store U.S. used-car retail units fall more than 8.5% year over year in a coming quarterly report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $384 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,724 loss on $10,000 · 47.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Service work held up while vehicle sales fell. More growth would support a steadier source of sales.
Supportive ifSame-store U.S. customer-pay service revenue and repair orders both rise year over year in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifEither same-store U.S. customer-pay service revenue or repair orders turn flat or fall year over year.