Graphic Packaging (GPK)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.43-2.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPK
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $10 GPK trades at 9.5× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| graham number | 12M | $16.43 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $26.05 | 12.2 | 3.64 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $16.53 | 26.0 | 0.64 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $14.80 | 15.0 | 0.99 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $43.42 |
| 1.5 |
| 29.11 |
| TTM |
| high |
| PEG | 12M | $1.93 | 1.8 | 1.10 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $11.37 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $20.34 | 17.9 | 1.14 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $6.01 | 26.0 | 0.23 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $34.29 | 15.0 | 2.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $43.02 | 1.5 | 28.84 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $4.00 | 1.8 | 2.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $3.06 | 26.0 | 0.12 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $33.21 | 15.0 | 2.21 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $41.66 | 1.5 | 27.93 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $3.88 | 1.8 | 2.21 | Analyst | medium |